{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7874f08-5dda-48db-9300-e752e363a28a", "symbol": "ETB", "name": "Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.302, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.138, "architecture_energy": 46.107, "architecture_maturity": 30.475, "architecture_confidence": 78.314, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.65, "rotation_up": 57.84, "upward_expansion": 82.53, "deceleration": 50.61, "rotation_down": 20.06, "downward_expansion": 6.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.455634, 15.378092, 15.275958, 15.129281 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.58, "trend_reference": 14.985839, "distance_from_trend": 0.039648, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.730151, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.335463, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043949, "excess_performance": -0.081676, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039648, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.166105, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 318762, "relative_activity": 1.249132, "balance": 1.166105, "dry_up": 0.909561, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024003, "annualized_volatility": 0.133691, "from_high_reference": -0.008275, "from_low_reference": 0.149659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.985839, "fair_value_reference": 12.730151, "structural_low": 13.575949, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.007883, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.000581, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.058419, "worst_return": -0.087968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008672, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01462, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.109731, "worst_return": -0.082921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054066, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.013663, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.097902, "worst_return": -0.109376, "sufficient": true }, { 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258592.05, "trend": 14.915993, "fair_value": 12.636241, "relative_strength": -2.931996, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.404542, "energy": 49.15169, "activity_lines": [ 15.359003, 15.28843, 15.146883, 15.03251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.27, "volume": 175050, "typical_volume": 252086.85, "trend": 14.933506, "fair_value": 12.665481, "relative_strength": -3.124747, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.021427, "energy": 49.584824, "activity_lines": [ 15.348093, 15.292802, 15.17733, 15.05535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.46, "volume": 222727, "typical_volume": 252481.75, "trend": 14.960551, "fair_value": 12.697531, "relative_strength": -2.897499, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.850949, "energy": 49.871267, "activity_lines": [ 15.3976, 15.326218, 15.223234, 15.089317 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.58, "volume": 318762, "typical_volume": 255186.8, "trend": 14.985839, "fair_value": 12.730151, "relative_strength": -5.335463, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.137799, "energy": 46.107027, "activity_lines": [ 15.455634, 15.378092, 15.275958, 15.129281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }