{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b78f1c6c-df61-4df3-934b-037f2177b6c5", "symbol": "MPW", "name": "METALPWLTD FPO [MPW]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.435, "architecture_energy": 36.252, "architecture_maturity": 23.257, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.69, "rotation_up": 20.86, "upward_expansion": 5.12, "deceleration": 47.61, "rotation_down": 44.31, "downward_expansion": 73.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.926333, 1.946455, 2.080476, 2.156849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.97, "trend_reference": 2.282333, "distance_from_trend": -0.136848, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.307756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.506397, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.304541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.143478, "excess_performance": -0.207184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136848, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.506397, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.804049, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.407029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143478, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.296608, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 467895, "relative_activity": 0.740953, "balance": 0.296608, "dry_up": 1.214024, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151308, "annualized_volatility": 0.732837, "from_high_reference": -0.603622, "from_low_reference": 0.527132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.282333, "fair_value_reference": 1.307756, "structural_low": 1.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.013514, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.003705, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.247619, "worst_return": -0.346154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.154851, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.318182, "worst_return": -0.416667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.309524, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.385309, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.090909, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.348571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.46, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.325112, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.405063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.937063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.339655, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.366667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061905, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.3625, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"relative_strength": -26.686443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.04458, "energy": 35.789121, "activity_lines": [ 1.967667, 1.979182, 2.13531, 2.207065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.83, "volume": 1000689, "typical_volume": 688750.2, "trend": 2.286333, "fair_value": 1.297452, "relative_strength": -28.449271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.875326, "energy": 37.75787, "activity_lines": [ 1.923, 1.947, 2.100833, 2.177258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.97, "volume": 467895, "typical_volume": 631477.5, "trend": 2.282333, "fair_value": 1.307756, "relative_strength": -25.304541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.435243, "energy": 36.251888, "activity_lines": [ 1.926333, 1.946455, 2.080476, 2.156849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }