{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b79948f3-3e81-4c9d-922d-660904633035", "symbol": "SPPY", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P 500 Leaders UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.006, "architecture_energy": 71.609, "architecture_maturity": 87.158, "architecture_confidence": 75.163, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 56.69, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.26, "rotation_down": 29.04, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.118333, 47.882, 47.102429, 46.033505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.294998, "trend_reference": 44.786667, "distance_from_trend": 0.100662, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.793077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304339, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.523487, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149603, "excess_performance": 0.084964, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100662, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043877, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04528, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055235, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149603, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.966838, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43029, "relative_activity": 0.445662, "balance": 2.966838, "dry_up": 0.698462, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015979, "annualized_volatility": 0.112645, "from_high_reference": -0.006049, "from_low_reference": 0.27049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.786667, "fair_value_reference": 37.793077, "structural_low": 40.255001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.015292, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008114, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.083388, "worst_return": -0.112108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026984, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.029658, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125649, "worst_return": -0.193545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.076304, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.080629, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.169421, "worst_return": -0.103098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 8.935977, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.138244, "energy": 87.452937, "activity_lines": [ 47.725333, 47.371091, 46.039762, 45.097538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.455002, "volume": 63318, "typical_volume": 98755.8, "trend": 44.229833, "fair_value": 37.423077, "relative_strength": 8.605427, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.901008, "energy": 83.153916, "activity_lines": [ 47.684, 47.450727, 46.294238, 45.317366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.580002, "volume": 66811, "typical_volume": 97714.35, "trend": 44.407667, "fair_value": 37.540577, "relative_strength": 7.364413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.957058, "energy": 65.347855, "activity_lines": [ 47.646668, 47.518819, 46.536953, 45.533506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.445, "volume": 96590, "typical_volume": 99310.35, "trend": 44.582333, "fair_value": 37.659647, "relative_strength": 4.59724, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.032455, "energy": 61.280818, "activity_lines": [ 47.568001, 47.539637, 46.744048, 45.729463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.294998, "volume": 43029, "typical_volume": 96550.7, "trend": 44.786667, "fair_value": 37.793077, "relative_strength": 5.523487, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.00624, "energy": 71.608627, "activity_lines": [ 48.118333, 47.882, 47.102429, 46.033505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }