{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b79b9d0b-b77f-4343-b448-9f6e106320ae", "symbol": "43B", "name": "Secura Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.242, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.087, "architecture_energy": 23.288, "architecture_maturity": 67.743, "architecture_confidence": 79.58, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.45, "rotation_up": 35.4, "upward_expansion": 20.47, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 25.81, "downward_expansion": 56.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0724, 0.071691, 0.07287, 0.073637 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.072, "trend_reference": 0.075072, "distance_from_trend": -0.04092, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.059253, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.986154, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.095568, "excess_performance": -0.250403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095568, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495674, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 301300, "relative_activity": 0.740795, "balance": 0.495674, "dry_up": 0.896736, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047009, "annualized_volatility": 0.397938, "from_high_reference": -0.220644, "from_low_reference": 0.12706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.075072, "fair_value_reference": 0.059253, "structural_low": 0.065, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.00658, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.003521, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.229151, "worst_return": -0.135589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.030918, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.140345, "worst_return": -0.081133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002697, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.130828, "worst_return": -0.053693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.415097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109596, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.072, "volume": 145500, "typical_volume": 463150.0, "trend": 0.075227, "fair_value": 0.05915, "relative_strength": -17.361564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.331188, "energy": 23.491295, "activity_lines": [ 0.072133, 0.071709, 0.073044, 0.073845 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.072, "volume": 301300, "typical_volume": 406725.0, "trend": 0.075072, "fair_value": 0.059253, "relative_strength": -17.986154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.087464, "energy": 23.287525, "activity_lines": [ 0.0724, 0.071691, 0.07287, 0.073637 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }