{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b79c3ab2-abd5-414e-af25-96dc5fb37ec4", "symbol": "1217", "name": "AGV Products Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 66.701, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.091, "architecture_energy": 11.335, "architecture_maturity": 18.718, "architecture_confidence": 60.153, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.89, "rotation_up": 21.26, "upward_expansion": 20.66, "deceleration": 55.16, "rotation_down": 33.61, "downward_expansion": 52.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.907333, 9.929455, 9.882929, 9.911387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.96, "trend_reference": 9.988039, "distance_from_trend": -0.002807, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.846125, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0817, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.560555, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.023181, "excess_performance": -0.464553, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002807, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007501, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0817, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052361, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078569, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023181, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.123105, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1990253, "relative_activity": 0.688829, "balance": 1.123105, "dry_up": 0.812085, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025718, "annualized_volatility": 0.111242, "from_high_reference": -0.092643, "from_low_reference": 0.06867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.988039, "fair_value_reference": 10.846125, "structural_low": 9.32, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.012605, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.007175, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.146789, "worst_return": -0.073394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004785, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.020053, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124402, "worst_return": -0.080778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000891, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067672, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.073587, "worst_return": -0.064684, 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.330582, "energy": 16.364671, "activity_lines": [ 9.984667, 9.935818, 9.883846, 9.934714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.95, "volume": 3278909, "typical_volume": 2935464.95, "trend": 10.012089, "fair_value": 10.887582, "relative_strength": -28.239786, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.666702, "energy": 11.384119, "activity_lines": [ 9.978667, 9.951273, 9.888786, 9.929968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.76, "volume": 2637772, "typical_volume": 2909765.5, "trend": 9.995918, "fair_value": 10.866955, "relative_strength": -30.444082, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.987328, "energy": 15.641918, "activity_lines": [ 9.896667, 9.922545, 9.875876, 9.913704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 9.96, "volume": 1990253, "typical_volume": 2889328.8, "trend": 9.988039, "fair_value": 10.846125, "relative_strength": -30.560555, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.09085, "energy": 11.334667, "activity_lines": [ 9.907333, 9.929455, 9.882929, 9.911387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }