{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b79c7fa8-ac25-4a9c-a54f-b5bdafb64257", "symbol": "HRL-F81", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4A) S&P Financial Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.783, "architecture_energy": 63.022, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.643, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.75, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.33, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.511067, 6.398164, 157.947804, 267.531137 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.653, "trend_reference": 396.487134, "distance_from_trend": -0.98322, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 498.716756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98666, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.806148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989106, "excess_performance": -1.030393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.98322, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337775, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98666, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.125974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.724184, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989106, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978762, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11618, "relative_activity": 0.037056, "balance": 0.978762, "dry_up": 0.29674, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.105054, "annualized_volatility": 6.36461, "from_high_reference": -0.989706, "from_low_reference": 0.135324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 396.487134, "fair_value_reference": 498.716756, "structural_low": 5.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.014834, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.000437, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.146055, "worst_return": -0.989388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03511, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.049722, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.106641, "worst_return": -0.988964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042429, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.01927, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076261, "worst_return": -0.186581, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.993438, "energy": 85.316094, "activity_lines": [ 6.331733, 69.328508, 256.070847, 351.085135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.396, "volume": 121981, "typical_volume": 321901.25, "trend": 438.3189, "fair_value": 503.944019, "relative_strength": -98.935469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.63291, "energy": 67.551262, "activity_lines": [ 6.3682, 37.822854, 220.565842, 321.88752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.494, "volume": 81823, "typical_volume": 320809.55, "trend": 417.352033, "fair_value": 501.343981, "relative_strength": -98.861804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.227185, "energy": 66.908535, "activity_lines": [ 6.424667, 16.838727, 187.867333, 294.027849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.653, "volume": 11618, "typical_volume": 313522.2, "trend": 396.487134, "fair_value": 498.716756, "relative_strength": -98.806148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.782886, "energy": 63.022203, "activity_lines": [ 6.511067, 6.398164, 157.947804, 267.531137 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }