{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7a38b0a-650b-44e9-849c-3918eed829e0", "symbol": "000605", "name": "Bohai Water Industry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.597, "architecture_energy": 48.438, "architecture_maturity": 68.582, "architecture_confidence": 87.525, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 25.88, "upward_expansion": 7.84, "deceleration": 60.8, "rotation_down": 48.04, "downward_expansion": 78.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.550667, 5.570617, 5.93337, 6.211366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.77, "trend_reference": 6.533425, "distance_from_trend": -0.116849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.429451, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102567, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.945265, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.190743, "excess_performance": -0.198143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067739, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102567, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003344, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190743, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.453187, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22979698, "relative_activity": 1.034183, "balance": 0.453187, "dry_up": 1.17869, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079658, "annualized_volatility": 0.315566, "from_high_reference": -0.287654, "from_low_reference": 0.124756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.533425, "fair_value_reference": 6.429451, "structural_low": 5.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.02903, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": 0.017601, "regime_survival": 0.521739, "best_return": 0.265589, "worst_return": -0.132296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001963, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027666, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.082005, "worst_return": -0.172876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039855, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075501, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.216963, "worst_return": -0.187192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.440055, "relative_strength": -25.1016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.786501, "energy": 71.173164, "activity_lines": [ 5.4172, 5.607422, 6.060539, 6.329313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.57, "volume": 22038320, "typical_volume": 22550274.8, "trend": 6.564758, "fair_value": 6.434398, "relative_strength": -17.357198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.743816, "energy": 57.741017, "activity_lines": [ 5.454667, 5.559792, 5.98324, 6.262641 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.77, "volume": 22979698, "typical_volume": 22220140.2, "trend": 6.533425, "fair_value": 6.429451, "relative_strength": -17.945265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.59738, "energy": 48.437731, "activity_lines": [ 5.550667, 5.570617, 5.93337, 6.211366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }