{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7a77463-1000-4aaf-b76b-06f6e41ecc45", "symbol": "NAGREEKEXP", "name": "Nagreeka Exports Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.01, "architecture_energy": 59.507, "architecture_maturity": 11.432, "architecture_confidence": 72.863, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.11, "rotation_up": 16.54, "upward_expansion": 21.06, "deceleration": 43.27, "rotation_down": 73.01, "downward_expansion": 65.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.717333, 23.902363, 25.065857, 24.973161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 22.67, "trend_reference": 24.991667, "distance_from_trend": -0.092898, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.87956, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.265857, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.4148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145173, "excess_performance": -0.101464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092898, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0245, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.265857, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202538, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.375774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38740, "relative_activity": 0.733148, "balance": 0.375774, "dry_up": 0.997377, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100031, "annualized_volatility": 0.46388, "from_high_reference": -0.43325, "from_low_reference": 0.295429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.991667, "fair_value_reference": 30.87956, "structural_low": 17.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.077176, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049923, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.147727, "worst_return": 0.006625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.005444, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002382, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157467, "worst_return": -0.168355, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.117769, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088259, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160714, "worst_return": 0.074825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"volume": 53659, "typical_volume": 51910.8, "trend": 25.215, "fair_value": 30.913881, "relative_strength": -9.098394, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.062207, "energy": 40.737375, "activity_lines": [ 24.074667, 25.202909, 25.625143, 25.364989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.549999, "volume": 92164, "typical_volume": 54240.05, "trend": 25.078333, "fair_value": 30.895687, "relative_strength": -17.274437, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.583056, "energy": 57.755601, "activity_lines": [ 23.042666, 24.409273, 25.287857, 25.128538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.67, "volume": 38740, "typical_volume": 52840.6, "trend": 24.991667, "fair_value": 30.87956, "relative_strength": -13.4148, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.010309, "energy": 59.507282, "activity_lines": [ 22.717333, 23.902363, 25.065857, 24.973161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }