{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7a89a6e-b0b4-402e-b679-1ffaf782e75c", "symbol": "XDNY", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.671, "architecture_energy": 37.206, "architecture_maturity": 60.022, "architecture_confidence": 78.197, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.11, "rotation_up": 40.14, "upward_expansion": 66.52, "deceleration": 85.45, "rotation_down": 27.06, "downward_expansion": 16.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.9648, 19.986473, 19.675286, 19.311917 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.549999, "trend_reference": 18.889405, "distance_from_trend": 0.087911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.635243, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314338, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.467119, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118676, "excess_performance": -0.052216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055225, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314338, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052787, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014671, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011681, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118676, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.360787, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25193, "relative_activity": 0.47465, "balance": 6.360787, "dry_up": 0.493165, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029759, "annualized_volatility": 0.199319, "from_high_reference": -0.001215, "from_low_reference": 0.322304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.889405, "fair_value_reference": 15.635243, "structural_low": 16.908001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025509, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.015386, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.207102, "worst_return": -0.079731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043012, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.049475, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.203778, "worst_return": -0.050181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066499, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.031548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096036, "worst_return": 0.00928, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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18.532273, "fair_value": 15.458549, "relative_strength": -0.406311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.333224, "energy": 85.753363, "activity_lines": [ 20.232867, 19.952218, 19.3514, 19.013914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.360001, "volume": 33313, "typical_volume": 73365.8, "trend": 18.6144, "fair_value": 15.500259, "relative_strength": -3.830419, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.23564, "energy": 52.089183, "activity_lines": [ 19.968667, 19.889764, 19.396052, 19.067315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.766001, "volume": 10956, "typical_volume": 65528.55, "trend": 18.709398, "fair_value": 15.542389, "relative_strength": -1.692692, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.853744, "energy": 40.601524, "activity_lines": [ 19.855001, 19.894691, 19.478105, 19.141612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.596001, "volume": 35241, "typical_volume": 60146.85, "trend": 18.796875, "fair_value": 15.58549, "relative_strength": -3.21667, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.058628, "energy": 28.608426, "activity_lines": [ 19.735267, 19.856928, 19.535567, 19.198812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.549999, "volume": 25193, "typical_volume": 53077.05, "trend": 18.889405, "fair_value": 15.635243, "relative_strength": -1.467119, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.670951, "energy": 37.206306, "activity_lines": [ 19.9648, 19.986473, 19.675286, 19.311917 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }