{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7af3d8f-3677-4728-9b8b-b3821f815189", "symbol": "MXI", "name": "ISHARES TRUST GLOBAL MATERIALS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.938, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.332, "architecture_energy": 10.239, "architecture_maturity": 16.334, "architecture_confidence": 69.145, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.15, "rotation_up": 30.96, "upward_expansion": 30.16, "deceleration": 66.57, "rotation_down": 38.53, "downward_expansion": 25.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.932073, 107.560103, 108.279587, 108.080673 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 112.99, "trend_reference": 107.807025, "distance_from_trend": 0.048076, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 86.987525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.102087, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050507, "excess_performance": -0.075117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045789, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001021, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04687, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050507, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.644357, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104108, "relative_activity": 0.829143, "balance": 1.644357, "dry_up": 0.57796, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042014, "annualized_volatility": 0.260705, "from_high_reference": -0.021382, "from_low_reference": 0.327089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.807025, "fair_value_reference": 86.987525, "structural_low": 96.27009, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024709, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.011147, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.06878, "worst_return": -0.122338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004282, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003028, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.1167, "worst_return": -0.038272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045119, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017461, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107061, "worst_return": -0.021735, "sufficient": false }, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.897384, "energy": 22.564924, "activity_lines": [ 106.09492, 107.483723, 108.113576, 107.893397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.61, "volume": 76090, "typical_volume": 133981.4, "trend": 107.111287, "fair_value": 86.564493, "relative_strength": -1.864326, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.111984, "energy": 29.119298, "activity_lines": [ 105.661527, 107.003905, 107.938427, 107.813176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.67, "volume": 72959, "typical_volume": 130648.0, "trend": 107.402505, "fair_value": 86.749723, "relative_strength": -2.967333, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.727803, "energy": 32.018101, "activity_lines": [ 105.5568, 106.584808, 107.767517, 107.72019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.99, "volume": 104108, "typical_volume": 125561.0, "trend": 107.807025, "fair_value": 86.987525, "relative_strength": 0.102087, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.332206, "energy": 10.238825, "activity_lines": [ 107.932073, 107.560103, 108.279587, 108.080673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }