{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7b18969-ca6c-4e14-84d2-ad673830318b", "symbol": "RBA", "name": "RB Global, Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.105, "architecture_energy": 13.811, "architecture_maturity": 39.868, "architecture_confidence": 75.435, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.47, "rotation_up": 15.17, "upward_expansion": 54.08, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 37.47, "downward_expansion": 20.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.591335, 152.109273, 150.219497, 147.749858 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 132.070007, "trend_reference": 146.475686, "distance_from_trend": -0.098349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 123.429242, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.039737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173448, "excess_performance": -0.293869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098349, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028956, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057097, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173448, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.818137, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2257200, "relative_activity": 2.499031, "balance": 0.818137, "dry_up": 1.429259, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067977, "annualized_volatility": 0.356055, "from_high_reference": -0.203053, "from_low_reference": 0.028583 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 146.475686, "fair_value_reference": 123.429242, "structural_low": 128.399994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009113, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005246, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067629, "worst_return": -0.053775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.1147, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.022719, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16893, "worst_return": -0.093201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030194, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146117, "worst_return": 0.024063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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146.683444, "fair_value": 122.559861, "relative_strength": -3.208227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.61254, "energy": 47.997563, "activity_lines": [ 157.532001, 156.231527, 150.931086, 148.263636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.759995, "volume": 1105300, "typical_volume": 849970.0, "trend": 147.110117, "fair_value": 123.063086, "relative_strength": -4.647949, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.332742, "energy": 30.057263, "activity_lines": [ 155.847999, 156.228362, 151.652693, 148.720187 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.070007, "volume": 2257200, "typical_volume": 903230.0, "trend": 146.475686, "fair_value": 123.429242, "relative_strength": -20.039737, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.104884, "energy": 13.810612, "activity_lines": [ 147.591335, 152.109273, 150.219497, 147.749858 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }