{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7b7c85d-adc0-4914-9283-84a34a764483", "symbol": "ORI", "name": "Old Republic International Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.934, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.778, "architecture_energy": 69.556, "architecture_maturity": 7.485, "architecture_confidence": 69.958, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.77, "rotation_up": 77.48, "upward_expansion": 92.69, "deceleration": 40.25, "rotation_down": 9.67, "downward_expansion": 14.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.718, 41.952909, 40.777303, 40.48795 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 43.03, "trend_reference": 40.269053, "distance_from_trend": 0.068563, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.286082, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332772, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.980166, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046672, "excess_performance": -0.078953, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068563, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.332772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062678, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05628, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046672, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.778821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5897192, "relative_activity": 0.847036, "balance": 3.778821, "dry_up": 0.906956, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04291, "annualized_volatility": 0.22265, "from_high_reference": -0.036282, "from_low_reference": 0.258495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.269053, "fair_value_reference": 32.286082, "structural_low": 36.349942, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.007081, "positive_rate": 0.575, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": 0.002271, "regime_survival": 0.725, "best_return": 0.131326, "worst_return": -0.163754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.028349, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.000465, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.161634, "worst_return": -0.097528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.106207, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024147, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.22248, "worst_return": -0.076429, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 23.486806, "energy": 31.001729, "activity_lines": [ 40.951333, 39.922528, 39.692842, 39.854053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.24, "volume": 5875235, "typical_volume": 7663299.65, "trend": 40.247604, "fair_value": 31.896329, "relative_strength": -1.598823, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.583838, "energy": 47.532626, "activity_lines": [ 41.578667, 40.441806, 39.92781, 39.982368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.29, "volume": 6220493, "typical_volume": 7593075.0, "trend": 40.212562, "fair_value": 32.023637, "relative_strength": -1.066556, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.865219, "energy": 60.940652, "activity_lines": [ 41.978, 40.910149, 40.167319, 40.114135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.21, "volume": 7264546, "typical_volume": 7494370.3, "trend": 40.233309, "fair_value": 32.154915, "relative_strength": -0.151569, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.148299, "energy": 73.038129, "activity_lines": [ 42.444, 41.485913, 40.489069, 40.307518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.03, "volume": 5897192, "typical_volume": 6962150.85, "trend": 40.269053, "fair_value": 32.286082, "relative_strength": -3.980166, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.777797, "energy": 69.555604, "activity_lines": [ 42.718, 41.952909, 40.777303, 40.48795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }