{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7ba22aa-4976-4899-903a-4a5e7eaabe2d", "symbol": "E1DU34", "name": "New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.977, "architecture_energy": 45.471, "architecture_maturity": 19.804, "architecture_confidence": 81.478, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.07, "rotation_up": 67.38, "upward_expansion": 36.71, "deceleration": 44.08, "rotation_down": 16.68, "downward_expansion": 25.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.136, 17.256364, 16.978419, 17.377669 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.08, "trend_reference": 18.07208, "distance_from_trend": 0.055772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.19402, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099746, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.63659, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.124021, "excess_performance": -0.066973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055772, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046539, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099746, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0268, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006366, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160649, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124021, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.023715, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61, "relative_activity": 0.488195, "balance": 1.023715, "dry_up": 0.588235, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050601, "annualized_volatility": 0.398414, "from_high_reference": -0.124021, "from_low_reference": 0.22859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.07208, "fair_value_reference": 21.19402, "structural_low": 15.53, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06125, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.106672, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.066667, "worst_return": -0.191942, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.03344, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017304, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16, "worst_return": -0.09312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.148193, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.13642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.632, "worst_return": -0.335614, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.48, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 423.75, "trend": 18.182325, "fair_value": 21.1709, "relative_strength": -15.267054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.16774, "energy": 28.220799, "activity_lines": [ 16.483333, 16.201636, 16.627036, 17.256866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.1, "volume": 205, "typical_volume": 432.2, "trend": 18.12523, "fair_value": 21.17731, "relative_strength": -3.732166, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.668811, "energy": 24.441013, "activity_lines": [ 17.432, 16.762364, 16.806473, 17.316071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.08, "volume": 61, "typical_volume": 124.95, "trend": 18.07208, "fair_value": 21.19402, "relative_strength": -0.63659, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.976601, "energy": 45.471354, "activity_lines": [ 18.136, 17.256364, 16.978419, 17.377669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }