{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7bed28d-2103-49ee-a8ae-152e8c0bc97c", "symbol": "EMF", "name": "Templeton Emerging Markets Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.002, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.831, "architecture_energy": 19.822, "architecture_maturity": 63.09, "architecture_confidence": 89.672, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.69, "rotation_up": 18.01, "upward_expansion": 51.14, "deceleration": 93.72, "rotation_down": 36.75, "downward_expansion": 19.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.456667, 21.876081, 21.875343, 21.268772 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.83, "trend_reference": 20.557265, "distance_from_trend": 0.061912, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.337586, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.636728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.853514, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123748, "excess_performance": -0.001877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061912, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104543, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.636728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.058535, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17303, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.075575, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166658, "relative_activity": 0.845905, "balance": 1.075575, "dry_up": 1.033497, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070999, "annualized_volatility": 0.320668, "from_high_reference": -0.109706, "from_low_reference": 0.577032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.557265, "fair_value_reference": 13.337586, "structural_low": 16.67, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011374, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.001785, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.190328, "worst_return": -0.032061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03563, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009361, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.322334, "worst_return": -0.004724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062935, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.044038, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": 0.008518, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 48.249508, "activity_lines": [ 22.812298, 22.6513, 21.512746, 20.803219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.71, "volume": 163446, "typical_volume": 230302.15, "trend": 19.978241, "fair_value": 13.044009, "relative_strength": 14.875782, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.25465, "energy": 42.447376, "activity_lines": [ 22.759892, 22.716387, 21.711937, 20.993084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.07, "volume": 130038, "typical_volume": 220842.6, "trend": 20.141345, "fair_value": 13.116276, "relative_strength": 7.743067, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.064274, "energy": 22.522843, "activity_lines": [ 22.130716, 22.442871, 21.744331, 21.06352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.03, "volume": 242257, "typical_volume": 209236.85, "trend": 20.293899, "fair_value": 13.186276, "relative_strength": 7.650684, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.722154, "energy": 21.113394, "activity_lines": [ 21.641333, 22.185131, 21.770402, 21.120852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.19, "volume": 275515, "typical_volume": 209078.25, "trend": 20.43335, "fair_value": 13.259055, "relative_strength": 6.833945, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.639886, "energy": 20.034012, "activity_lines": [ 21.400667, 21.968019, 21.800358, 21.178665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.83, "volume": 166658, "typical_volume": 197017.45, "trend": 20.557265, "fair_value": 13.337586, "relative_strength": 5.853514, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.831247, "energy": 19.821528, "activity_lines": [ 21.456667, 21.876081, 21.875343, 21.268772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }