{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b7ce7bd1-1b4b-447d-bb33-5b1df3fd5eb7",
    "symbol": "VCT",
    "name": "Vector Limited",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 6.893,
    "architecture_energy": 4.567,
    "architecture_maturity": 28.887,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.995,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.37,
        "rotation_up": 26.82,
        "upward_expansion": 48.95,
        "deceleration": 77.05,
        "rotation_down": 25.51,
        "downward_expansion": 26.95
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        4.967476,
        4.925377
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 4.85,
    "trend_reference": 4.865647,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.003216,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.92566,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235461,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.917926,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.003322,
    "excess_performance": -0.031596,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003216,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017597,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.235461,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.092192,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019179,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.126931,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003322,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.603723,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 539542,
      "relative_activity": 0.85826,
      "balance": 0.603723,
      "dry_up": 0.87783,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.036875,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.12752,
      "from_high_reference": -0.084906,
      "from_low_reference": 0.18422
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4.865647,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.92566,
      "structural_low": 4.496338,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.002494,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010062,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.045454,
        "worst_return": -0.051163,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.029166,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012817,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.090721,
        "worst_return": -0.044335,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.069666,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.119954,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.137578,
        "worst_return": -0.033504,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.045178,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.221672,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.296405,
        "worst_return": -0.046325,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-04-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.024749,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.002747,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-05-31",
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        "return": 0.027322,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.050411,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.005155,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.224272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.023158,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.033473,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 4.823531,
        "fair_value": 3.875074,
        "relative_strength": 1.931586,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 692032.7,
        "trend": 4.835969,
        "fair_value": 3.88458,
        "relative_strength": -0.845571,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 13.748267,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 614465,
        "typical_volume": 696213.55,
        "trend": 4.845945,
        "fair_value": 3.895208,
        "relative_strength": 2.629855,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.626696,
        "energy": 15.833103,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.952,
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          4.963932,
          4.909579
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5.01,
        "volume": 466202,
        "typical_volume": 683717.7,
        "trend": 4.856254,
        "fair_value": 3.905847,
        "relative_strength": 2.035034,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.200488,
        "energy": 17.317007,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.967333,
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          4.97417,
          4.920163
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.95,
        "volume": 587169,
        "typical_volume": 637722.9,
        "trend": 4.862941,
        "fair_value": 3.916101,
        "relative_strength": 1.158608,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.828015,
        "energy": 10.688509,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.960667,
          4.968545,
          4.976619,
          4.926211
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.85,
        "volume": 539542,
        "typical_volume": 628646.15,
        "trend": 4.865647,
        "fair_value": 3.92566,
        "relative_strength": -1.917926,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 6.893477,
        "energy": 4.567156,
        "activity_lines": [
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          4.945455,
          4.967476,
          4.925377
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}