{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7d507bd-0ccb-49dd-a6cf-a564419029b3", "symbol": "VNA", "name": "Vonovia SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.728, "architecture_energy": 32.012, "architecture_maturity": 47.45, "architecture_confidence": 86.658, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.85, "rotation_up": 18.94, "upward_expansion": 5.22, "deceleration": 47.64, "rotation_down": 54.16, "downward_expansion": 76.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.976, 21.129818, 21.14244, 21.455482 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.969999, "trend_reference": 22.057231, "distance_from_trend": -0.049291, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.325345, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.099965, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.107987, "excess_performance": -0.282234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049291, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038193, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107987, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.251719, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 569, "relative_activity": 0.734051, "balance": 2.251719, "dry_up": 0.424756, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043193, "annualized_volatility": 0.340757, "from_high_reference": -0.236993, "from_low_reference": 0.097387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.057231, "fair_value_reference": 24.325345, "structural_low": 19.10902, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.004151, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.022857, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.203341, "worst_return": -0.222707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.032032, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080444, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.275718, "worst_return": -0.254934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.122338, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.206493, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.378205, "worst_return": -0.341378, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.809474, "energy": 21.069963, "activity_lines": [ 21.564, 21.244716, 21.301614, 21.793183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.15, "volume": 29, "typical_volume": 967.15, "trend": 22.290234, "fair_value": 24.274522, "relative_strength": -25.62684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.494531, "energy": 19.979961, "activity_lines": [ 21.514, 21.25664, 21.249473, 21.716354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.639999, "volume": 469, "typical_volume": 928.1, "trend": 22.216013, "fair_value": 24.287458, "relative_strength": -27.672358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.91757, "energy": 22.534474, "activity_lines": [ 21.246666, 21.172545, 21.177167, 21.609888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.01, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": 861.3, "trend": 22.157273, "fair_value": 24.308046, "relative_strength": -25.596035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.640108, "energy": 28.004265, "activity_lines": [ 21.100666, 21.153636, 21.15794, 21.53208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.969999, "volume": 569, "typical_volume": 775.15, "trend": 22.057231, "fair_value": 24.325345, "relative_strength": -27.099965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.727511, "energy": 32.012376, "activity_lines": [ 20.976, 21.129818, 21.14244, 21.455482 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }