{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7da7ca5-583c-44f2-ae9f-574e92abff55", "symbol": "000407", "name": "Shandong Shengli Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.353, "architecture_energy": 38.461, "architecture_maturity": 77.943, "architecture_confidence": 58.657, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.77, "rotation_up": 26.89, "upward_expansion": 17.92, "deceleration": 66.72, "rotation_down": 37.46, "downward_expansion": 65.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.918, 3.887658, 4.074038, 4.278752 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.04, "trend_reference": 4.542874, "distance_from_trend": -0.110695, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.581747, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127941, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.546581, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234064, "excess_performance": -0.241464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110695, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061296, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127941, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190594, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105466, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017223, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234064, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.00484, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86064642, "relative_activity": 1.044424, "balance": 1.00484, "dry_up": 0.952797, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07116, "annualized_volatility": 0.338142, "from_high_reference": -0.395253, "from_low_reference": 0.198758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.542874, "fair_value_reference": 3.581747, "structural_low": 3.635722, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003333, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.023145, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.130111, "worst_return": -0.13289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011003, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.013951, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.276515, "worst_return": -0.154097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033468, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.010602, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.242424, "worst_return": -0.100523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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3.893947, 4.140946, 4.411109, 4.579999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.932112, "volume": 31681488, "typical_volume": 141033703.8, "trend": 4.71349, "fair_value": 3.570118, "relative_strength": -21.120408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.081649, "energy": 85.349321, "activity_lines": [ 3.880079, 4.068811, 4.344769, 4.527258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.77, "volume": 58010434, "typical_volume": 134701778.25, "trend": 4.672311, "fair_value": 3.572601, "relative_strength": -21.276924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.615216, "energy": 84.843094, "activity_lines": [ 3.826701, 3.98098, 4.268432, 4.466387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.83, "volume": 79042840, "typical_volume": 127558695.7, "trend": 4.644432, "fair_value": 3.574731, "relative_strength": -11.962479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.713395, "energy": 67.828989, "activity_lines": [ 3.817302, 3.923513, 4.203238, 4.412045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.78, "volume": 85626636, "typical_volume": 104727593.15, "trend": 4.616548, "fair_value": 3.576418, "relative_strength": -13.325326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.000844, "energy": 56.692463, "activity_lines": [ 3.804631, 3.872228, 4.139854, 4.356275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.95, "volume": 63322865, "typical_volume": 90975572.2, "trend": 4.575054, "fair_value": 3.578825, "relative_strength": -7.990966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.406282, "energy": 51.120086, "activity_lines": [ 3.855474, 3.864579, 4.099946, 4.313272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.04, "volume": 86064642, "typical_volume": 82403938.9, "trend": 4.542874, "fair_value": 3.581747, "relative_strength": -10.546581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.352734, "energy": 38.460584, "activity_lines": [ 3.918, 3.887658, 4.074038, 4.278752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }