{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7db1881-ebd1-4384-8821-3650e5146321", "symbol": "M1CH34", "name": "Microchip Technology Incorporated", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.952, "architecture_energy": 33.663, "architecture_maturity": 52.09, "architecture_confidence": 51.193, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.5, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 16.87, "deceleration": 70.88, "rotation_down": 63.58, "downward_expansion": 41.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 205.705996, 215.259815, 220.641133, 214.210822 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 214.509995, "trend_reference": 207.254289, "distance_from_trend": 0.035009, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 191.38565, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120826, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.401017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102434, "excess_performance": 0.159482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035009, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101791, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120826, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08401, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043992, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102434, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.036133, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 849, "relative_activity": 3.175019, "balance": 1.036133, "dry_up": 2.280292, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07804, "annualized_volatility": 0.492117, "from_high_reference": -0.171776, "from_low_reference": 0.607569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 207.254289, "fair_value_reference": 191.38565, "structural_low": 165.870682, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.01018, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.042815, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.194948, "worst_return": -0.135794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.070352, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.094156, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.389836, "worst_return": -0.174196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031231, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.072299, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.343928, "worst_return": -0.202946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.205829, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.197597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160483, "worst_return": -0.227024, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.13906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.209042, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069959, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119409, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064721, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.312975, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128691, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068329, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00782, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073191, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 189.16951, "volume": 28, "typical_volume": 69.95, "trend": 191.594918, "fair_value": 175.982183, "relative_strength": 0.829433, "stage": 2, 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"energy": 38.958886, "activity_lines": [ 233.351333, 235.274643, 223.651067, 214.787083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 208.929993, "volume": 262, "typical_volume": 166.9, "trend": 205.647402, "fair_value": 191.255963, "relative_strength": 3.764257, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.01536, "energy": 22.710027, "activity_lines": [ 224.471997, 230.313331, 223.531327, 215.062875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 200.75, "volume": 614, "typical_volume": 193.3, "trend": 206.343102, "fair_value": 191.23104, "relative_strength": -0.109034, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.867574, "energy": 18.427483, "activity_lines": [ 214.437331, 224.43109, 222.571865, 214.746914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 190.369995, "volume": 714, "typical_volume": 227.95, "trend": 206.846316, "fair_value": 191.226304, "relative_strength": -6.879089, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.116607, "energy": 40.484651, "activity_lines": [ 204.825997, 217.251271, 220.511937, 213.716391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 214.509995, "volume": 849, "typical_volume": 267.4, "trend": 207.254289, "fair_value": 191.38565, "relative_strength": 8.401017, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.951966, "energy": 33.663044, "activity_lines": [ 205.705996, 215.259815, 220.641133, 214.210822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }