{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7e2699d-6989-471b-87d3-b6c823392c63", "symbol": "301013", "name": "Shenzhen Lihexing Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.675, "architecture_energy": 26.318, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.54, "rotation_up": 17.07, "upward_expansion": 52.34, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 44.03, "downward_expansion": 23.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.500667, 48.819455, 46.272667, 41.263398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.450001, "trend_reference": 35.613333, "distance_from_trend": 0.276207, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.726514, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.304006, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 41.389458, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.887459, "excess_performance": 0.880059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.276207, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.291852, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.304006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.616094, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.413895, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.429544, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.887459, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.077973, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 254975604, "relative_activity": 2.194664, "balance": 3.077973, "dry_up": 1.506042, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.271219, "annualized_volatility": 1.030595, "from_high_reference": -0.429736, "from_low_reference": 1.65324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.613333, "fair_value_reference": 19.726514, "structural_low": 20.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.005239, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001306, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.355309, "worst_return": -0.15374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.24661, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.218576, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.563255, "worst_return": -0.231927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.422222, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.560105, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.131743, "worst_return": 0.339059, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.623289, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.591726, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.202134, "worst_return": 0.044445, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187465, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.355309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155553, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.434759, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066422, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190728, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.36216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035014, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333808, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150633, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 13.08232, "volume": 39718878, "typical_volume": 55769263.05, "trend": 12.579103, "fair_value": 13.441994, "relative_strength": 17.272505, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 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77.287104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.172141, "energy": 68.032272, "activity_lines": [ 63.104, 55.296364, 43.285143, 38.067591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.700001, "volume": 150554523, "typical_volume": 90431693.55, "trend": 33.813, "fair_value": 19.031568, "relative_strength": 72.866921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.142454, "energy": 66.231072, "activity_lines": [ 61.212001, 56.767819, 45.191524, 39.536817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.09, "volume": 105579616, "typical_volume": 92872171.15, "trend": 34.269333, "fair_value": 19.209973, "relative_strength": 41.568682, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.714814, "energy": 45.345746, "activity_lines": [ 54.818667, 55.211091, 45.657619, 40.070817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.459999, "volume": 141532618, "typical_volume": 97552687.15, "trend": 34.623667, "fair_value": 19.359017, "relative_strength": 24.153247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.287203, "energy": 25.267888, "activity_lines": [ 47.467333, 52.560909, 45.608667, 40.276667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.5, "volume": 197798846, "typical_volume": 105425863.55, "trend": 35.032, "fair_value": 19.515322, "relative_strength": 31.296018, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.488148, "energy": 27.569568, "activity_lines": [ 42.873333, 50.118909, 45.695714, 40.591269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.450001, "volume": 254975604, "typical_volume": 116179793.6, "trend": 35.613333, "fair_value": 19.726514, "relative_strength": 41.389458, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.674707, "energy": 26.317758, "activity_lines": [ 42.500667, 48.819455, 46.272667, 41.263398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }