{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7f3c598-33a1-49c2-8b4f-93aa609316b2", "symbol": "PL", "name": "Planet Labs PBC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.725, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.637, "architecture_energy": 58.02, "architecture_maturity": 24.828, "architecture_confidence": 67.034, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.0, "rotation_up": 17.81, "upward_expansion": 20.6, "deceleration": 44.63, "rotation_down": 66.33, "downward_expansion": 59.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.264667, 24.461091, 29.789524, 30.556645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.93, "trend_reference": 30.304667, "distance_from_trend": -0.210353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.792692, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.443659, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.268315, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075022, "excess_performance": -0.050602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128483, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.443659, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.74584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.186369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075022, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.562657, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28519521, "relative_activity": 0.472438, "balance": 0.562657, "dry_up": 0.613516, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.273969, "annualized_volatility": 1.02343, "from_high_reference": -0.537674, "from_low_reference": 2.922951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.304667, "fair_value_reference": 9.792692, "structural_low": 19.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.381739, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.322439, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.640449, "worst_return": 0.123028, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.936909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.765488, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.936909, "worst_return": 0.936909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 3.637224, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 3.407194, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.637224, "worst_return": 3.637224, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 9.936909, 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"2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.237981, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.239748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.172945, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.856678, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.548369, "energy": 37.757375, "activity_lines": [ 28.306, 32.090545, 34.19019, 32.718925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.47, "volume": 46285292, "typical_volume": 66658787.4, "trend": 30.224667, "fair_value": 9.443205, "relative_strength": -5.390568, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.792587, "energy": 53.416553, "activity_lines": [ 26.204, 29.771455, 33.127714, 32.225699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.47, "volume": 38222375, "typical_volume": 65849676.5, "trend": 30.261667, "fair_value": 9.552308, "relative_strength": -14.188637, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.63629, "energy": 57.578981, "activity_lines": [ 24.014, 27.39, 31.882714, 31.596366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.48, "volume": 35116457, "typical_volume": 65394647.9, "trend": 30.264, "fair_value": 9.661731, "relative_strength": -15.947098, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.200978, "energy": 63.494469, "activity_lines": [ 22.344667, 25.394909, 30.661571, 30.96529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.93, "volume": 28519521, "typical_volume": 60366638.0, "trend": 30.304667, "fair_value": 9.792692, "relative_strength": -6.268315, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.637398, "energy": 58.020451, "activity_lines": [ 22.264667, 24.461091, 29.789524, 30.556645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }