{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7f53d6f-2006-41b1-a32e-91101ff6feab", "symbol": "ER0", "name": "KSH Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.547, "architecture_energy": 47.852, "architecture_maturity": 32.684, "architecture_confidence": 88.481, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.92, "rotation_up": 20.34, "upward_expansion": 7.14, "deceleration": 56.42, "rotation_down": 54.04, "downward_expansion": 78.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.315, 0.317, 0.327833, 0.334118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.315, "trend_reference": 0.341333, "distance_from_trend": -0.077148, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.268338, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173892, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.487254, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1, "excess_performance": -0.254835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077148, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173892, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230433, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.208641, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 357100, "relative_activity": 0.316389, "balance": 1.208641, "dry_up": 0.614349, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046398, "annualized_volatility": 0.20704, "from_high_reference": -0.248529, "from_low_reference": 0.185391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.341333, "fair_value_reference": 0.268338, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.015668, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.07576, "worst_return": -0.204082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.006705, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027386, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.108682, "worst_return": -0.236842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04693, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037332, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.058809, "worst_return": -0.216664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"volume": 316300, "typical_volume": 1475920.0, "trend": 0.346833, "fair_value": 0.267727, "relative_strength": -21.85445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.27117, "energy": 76.998923, "activity_lines": [ 0.319667, 0.327909, 0.337262, 0.341882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.32, "volume": 1128500, "typical_volume": 1224355.0, "trend": 0.346167, "fair_value": 0.267897, "relative_strength": -22.294069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.039811, "energy": 68.368141, "activity_lines": [ 0.319667, 0.324909, 0.335024, 0.340151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.31, "volume": 308700, "typical_volume": 1107860.0, "trend": 0.3445, "fair_value": 0.268032, "relative_strength": -25.544724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.233107, "energy": 60.842536, "activity_lines": [ 0.316333, 0.320727, 0.332119, 0.337817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.315, "volume": 979300, "typical_volume": 1127470.0, "trend": 0.342833, "fair_value": 0.268171, "relative_strength": -24.728058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.698517, "energy": 50.574349, "activity_lines": [ 0.315667, 0.318455, 0.329905, 0.335914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.315, "volume": 357100, "typical_volume": 1128675.0, "trend": 0.341333, "fair_value": 0.268338, "relative_strength": -25.487254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.546755, "energy": 47.852252, "activity_lines": [ 0.315, 0.317, 0.327833, 0.334118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }