{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7f8a35a-58f8-4f64-8a3e-88277a63f500", "symbol": "JHMD", "name": "JOHN HANCOCK EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR MULTIFACTOR DEVELOPED INTL ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.186, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.131, "architecture_energy": 68.04, "architecture_maturity": 35.072, "architecture_confidence": 74.073, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.83, "rotation_up": 68.51, "upward_expansion": 86.95, "deceleration": 45.95, "rotation_down": 13.11, "downward_expansion": 13.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.566667, 45.107924, 44.633205, 44.3005 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.8, "trend_reference": 44.009749, "distance_from_trend": 0.063401, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.539308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316852, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.394433, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051922, "excess_performance": -0.073703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063401, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030605, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316852, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022567, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013089, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051922, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.112996, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 382158, "relative_activity": 0.797899, "balance": 1.112996, "dry_up": 0.713875, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026554, "annualized_volatility": 0.179928, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.22709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.009749, "fair_value_reference": 35.539308, "structural_low": 40.585, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.015021, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005149, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.063756, "worst_return": -0.102362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.039974, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.030861, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.105731, "worst_return": -0.083544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06463, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.047946, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.149931, "worst_return": -0.052807, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 44.604731, 44.363445, 44.02087, 43.874291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.53, "volume": 238553, "typical_volume": 531620.0, "trend": 43.650375, "fair_value": 35.220073, "relative_strength": -2.414926, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.126943, "energy": 34.10289, "activity_lines": [ 44.597355, 44.421321, 44.100025, 43.938191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.57, "volume": 562116, "typical_volume": 535234.2, "trend": 43.746749, "fair_value": 35.316044, "relative_strength": -1.727689, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.49548, "energy": 37.402976, "activity_lines": [ 44.597333, 44.482032, 44.188657, 43.997521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.51, "volume": 184830, "typical_volume": 480403.45, "trend": 43.867082, "fair_value": 35.423169, "relative_strength": -0.760234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.961415, "energy": 44.606466, "activity_lines": [ 44.913333, 44.690441, 44.358097, 44.11128 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.8, "volume": 382158, "typical_volume": 478955.25, "trend": 44.009749, "fair_value": 35.539308, "relative_strength": -1.394433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.131006, "energy": 68.039834, "activity_lines": [ 45.566667, 45.107924, 44.633205, 44.3005 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }