{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7fb6a82-ce9a-4a82-89f7-1d215cc4ae8c", "symbol": "EUEA", "name": "iShares Core EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF EUR (Dist)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.488, "architecture_energy": 67.392, "architecture_maturity": 32.78, "architecture_confidence": 86.342, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 62.33, "upward_expansion": 84.97, "deceleration": 54.53, "rotation_down": 23.03, "downward_expansion": 11.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.486, 65.014, 63.581864, 62.401498 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 67.080002, "trend_reference": 61.266887, "distance_from_trend": 0.094882, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.318661, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307127, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.250071, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110056, "excess_performance": -0.006607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094882, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03912, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307127, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087759, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012501, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013742, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110056, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.560378, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129464, "relative_activity": 0.818282, "balance": 2.560378, "dry_up": 0.764216, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024496, "annualized_volatility": 0.176869, "from_high_reference": -0.005191, "from_low_reference": 0.265577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.266887, "fair_value_reference": 51.318661, "structural_low": 54.178838, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.002324, "positive_rate": 0.564103, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": 0.001894, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.105454, "worst_return": -0.08687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002966, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.014823, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129134, "worst_return": -0.06196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071637, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.001358, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.11765, "worst_return": -0.165697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.672237, "energy": 69.425385, "activity_lines": [ 64.475999, 63.910197, 62.307072, 61.474085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.510002, "volume": 88340, "typical_volume": 194368.05, "trend": 60.832773, "fair_value": 50.994839, "relative_strength": -0.679298, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.745347, "energy": 58.700555, "activity_lines": [ 64.468667, 64.157818, 62.660029, 61.725799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.269997, "volume": 110597, "typical_volume": 174952.35, "trend": 61.043883, "fair_value": 51.150507, "relative_strength": -0.371543, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.081265, "energy": 53.312095, "activity_lines": [ 64.722666, 64.453999, 63.052974, 62.012071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.080002, "volume": 129464, "typical_volume": 158214.45, "trend": 61.266887, "fair_value": 51.318661, "relative_strength": 1.250071, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.488412, "energy": 67.392145, "activity_lines": [ 65.486, 65.014, 63.581864, 62.401498 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }