{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b7fca2fc-e1e6-479a-849d-b21bc776d9f5", "symbol": "000825", "name": "Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.675, "architecture_energy": 50.652, "architecture_maturity": 92.751, "architecture_confidence": 65.372, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.92, "rotation_up": 27.42, "upward_expansion": 20.79, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 45.31, "downward_expansion": 70.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.534667, 3.533467, 3.720959, 3.955406 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.54, "trend_reference": 4.312942, "distance_from_trend": -0.179215, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.893579, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.212669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323136, "excess_performance": -0.330536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063609, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090811, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202127, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025064, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323136, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754662, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 139882566, "relative_activity": 1.012924, "balance": 0.754662, "dry_up": 1.201972, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0632, "annualized_volatility": 0.297933, "from_high_reference": -0.385417, "from_low_reference": 0.079268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.312942, "fair_value_reference": 3.893579, "structural_low": 3.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.0341, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": 0.009453, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.232558, "worst_return": -0.130117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004234, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.012607, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.259819, "worst_return": -0.227653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.061008, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.079696, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.217523, "worst_return": -0.223265, "sufficient": true }, { 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163034749, "typical_volume": 168255548.0, "trend": 4.454942, "fair_value": 3.901591, "relative_strength": -20.450382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.502207, "energy": 78.419138, "activity_lines": [ 3.463333, 3.586099, 3.8586, 4.12047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.49, "volume": 194222321, "typical_volume": 154469507.35, "trend": 4.405608, "fair_value": 3.898643, "relative_strength": -19.527834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.138419, "energy": 65.742254, "activity_lines": [ 3.458, 3.548066, 3.799371, 4.058216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.63, "volume": 166819089, "typical_volume": 146013655.2, "trend": 4.357942, "fair_value": 3.896463, "relative_strength": -14.468888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.366312, "energy": 62.145633, "activity_lines": [ 3.518, 3.546217, 3.761284, 4.008177 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.54, "volume": 139882566, "typical_volume": 138097818.4, "trend": 4.312942, "fair_value": 3.893579, "relative_strength": -20.212669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.675145, "energy": 50.652328, "activity_lines": [ 3.534667, 3.533467, 3.720959, 3.955406 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }