{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8092b1e-4bd4-462a-bdf2-6cd4b56d7775", "symbol": "TCRT", "name": "Alaunos Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.012, "architecture_energy": 49.048, "architecture_maturity": 51.525, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 22.42, "upward_expansion": 7.22, "deceleration": 49.37, "rotation_down": 58.05, "downward_expansion": 82.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.962667, 2.017455, 2.215762, 2.401376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.99, "trend_reference": 2.601667, "distance_from_trend": -0.235106, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.407172, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.689411, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.466786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.243346, "excess_performance": -0.4308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.235106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135755, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.689411, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100409, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.364668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069083, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.278361, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38740, "relative_activity": 0.520991, "balance": 0.278361, "dry_up": 0.599146, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166595, "annualized_volatility": 0.553417, "from_high_reference": -0.566449, "from_low_reference": 0.191617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.601667, "fair_value_reference": 6.407172, "structural_low": 1.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.087977, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.690476, "median_excess_return": -0.100538, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 1.387879, "worst_return": -0.654908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.264825, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.349416, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 1.879195, "worst_return": -0.718404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.232602, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.592559, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.188776, "worst_return": -0.890244, "sufficient": true }, { 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2.780333, "fair_value": 8.031211, "relative_strength": -37.222231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.396536, "energy": 68.446234, "activity_lines": [ 2.091333, 2.219091, 2.449762, 2.593484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.05, "volume": 28257, "typical_volume": 78949.2, "trend": 2.73, "fair_value": 7.582044, "relative_strength": -33.691199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.482018, "energy": 63.293025, "activity_lines": [ 2.066667, 2.169636, 2.389619, 2.546366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.94, "volume": 67238, "typical_volume": 76510.6, "trend": 2.687, "fair_value": 7.167557, "relative_strength": -35.635258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.850559, "energy": 54.903043, "activity_lines": [ 2.019333, 2.109818, 2.324429, 2.495398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.88, "volume": 43971, "typical_volume": 75687.0, "trend": 2.640333, "fair_value": 6.778935, "relative_strength": -37.356252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.028661, "energy": 56.117954, "activity_lines": [ 1.966, 2.048727, 2.261476, 2.443333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.99, "volume": 38740, "typical_volume": 74358.3, "trend": 2.601667, "fair_value": 6.407172, "relative_strength": -36.466786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.011857, "energy": 49.048268, "activity_lines": [ 1.962667, 2.017455, 2.215762, 2.401376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }