{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8145abb-5fd5-4ea3-93f5-6a4afbc768fb", "symbol": "002239", "name": "Aotecar New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.77, "architecture_energy": 41.576, "architecture_maturity": 86.06, "architecture_confidence": 63.712, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.39, "rotation_up": 26.67, "upward_expansion": 18.2, "deceleration": 66.91, "rotation_down": 42.38, "downward_expansion": 68.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.490667, 2.485153, 2.578459, 2.698284 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.51, "trend_reference": 2.850985, "distance_from_trend": -0.119602, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.846679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.40402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.218069, "excess_performance": -0.225468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119602, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118271, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140229, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043022, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218069, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.383712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 236405880, "relative_activity": 0.992004, "balance": 0.383712, "dry_up": 1.151949, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060184, "annualized_volatility": 0.210842, "from_high_reference": -0.312329, "from_low_reference": 0.068085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.850985, "fair_value_reference": 2.846679, "structural_low": 2.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.008197, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004821, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.242236, "worst_return": -0.170068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.065892, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025514, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.364865, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.098715, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.017196, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.232653, "worst_return": -0.310559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009336, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.050107, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.193798, "worst_return": -0.167702, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054422, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004518, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040678, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042042, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006689, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.43, "volume": 290417374, "typical_volume": 250648865.8, "trend": 2.880651, "fair_value": 2.848119, "relative_strength": -19.103246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.293846, "energy": 61.416834, "activity_lines": [ 2.448667, 2.475755, 2.616312, 2.741981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.56, "volume": 273753106, "typical_volume": 244914739.6, "trend": 2.866652, "fair_value": 2.847368, "relative_strength": -12.966489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.882206, "energy": 53.018256, "activity_lines": [ 2.478667, 2.483787, 2.598267, 2.721293 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.51, "volume": 236405880, "typical_volume": 238311342.7, "trend": 2.850985, "fair_value": 2.846679, "relative_strength": -18.40402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.769558, "energy": 41.576394, "activity_lines": [ 2.490667, 2.485153, 2.578459, 2.698284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }