{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b817c6ba-2449-4624-ad31-78be352b73ec",
    "symbol": "ALIG",
    "name": "Alimak Group AB (publ)",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 86.295,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 46.977,
    "architecture_energy": 70.843,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.113,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.186,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.0,
        "rotation_up": 75.09,
        "upward_expansion": 65.63,
        "deceleration": 21.03,
        "rotation_down": 16.55,
        "downward_expansion": 23.96
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        125.853333,
        122.432728,
        117.376898,
        116.071848
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 128.0,
    "trend_reference": 117.548609,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.088911,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 112.008065,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142775,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -12.731992,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.068399,
    "excess_performance": -0.129893,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088911,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.050804,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.142775,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.149601,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.12732,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.164643,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.068399,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.851932,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 527695,
      "relative_activity": 0.874396,
      "balance": 3.851932,
      "dry_up": 0.866889,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.049399,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.323752,
      "from_high_reference": -0.218515,
      "from_low_reference": 0.273308
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 117.548609,
      "fair_value_reference": 112.008065,
      "structural_low": 100.525537,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.120585,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.132277,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.148456,
        "worst_return": 0.030113,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.211903,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.148366,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.219573,
        "worst_return": 0.204232,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.354571,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.263152,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.460452,
        "worst_return": 0.24869,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.497777,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.419298,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.497777,
        "worst_return": 0.497777,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-10",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.003623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.077329,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.031365,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.062167,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.036585,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.140652,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.146099,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.152936,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.129125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.161098,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.05968,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.136342,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025641,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 389723.7,
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 691870.65,
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        "fair_value": 107.877771,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 120.210107,
        "fair_value": 110.311201,
        "relative_strength": -20.438935,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 389898,
        "typical_volume": 639324.8,
        "trend": 119.267469,
        "fair_value": 110.567783,
        "relative_strength": -22.691623,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 125.0,
        "volume": 758323,
        "typical_volume": 653020.9,
        "trend": 118.84127,
        "fair_value": 110.909578,
        "relative_strength": -12.923224,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 39.363368,
        "energy": 47.084381,
        "activity_lines": [
          119.426667,
          116.36,
          113.139286,
          114.447847
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 124.800003,
        "volume": 349059,
        "typical_volume": 633532.05,
        "trend": 118.369592,
        "fair_value": 111.255419,
        "relative_strength": -13.658722,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 35.703477,
        "energy": 51.423812,
        "activity_lines": [
          121.466668,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 127.599998,
        "volume": 457583,
        "typical_volume": 612831.55,
        "trend": 118.017122,
        "fair_value": 111.620986,
        "relative_strength": -12.096287,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 49.229717,
        "energy": 61.397134,
        "activity_lines": [
          123.88,
          120.549091,
          115.919109,
          115.427792
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 128.0,
        "volume": 527695,
        "typical_volume": 603496.9,
        "trend": 117.548609,
        "fair_value": 112.008065,
        "relative_strength": -12.731992,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 46.976905,
        "energy": 70.843022,
        "activity_lines": [
          125.853333,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}