{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8184197-ce97-4219-bcd0-6cc0267755b3", "symbol": "SDL", "name": "Solution Dynamics Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.025, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.718, "architecture_energy": 5.468, "architecture_maturity": 25.837, "architecture_confidence": 67.132, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.7, "rotation_up": 25.12, "upward_expansion": 27.34, "deceleration": 45.69, "rotation_down": 24.76, "downward_expansion": 47.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.592667, 0.592091, 0.588286, 0.593698 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.6, "trend_reference": 0.614107, "distance_from_trend": -0.022972, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.889332, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.325336, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.963881, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149243, "excess_performance": -0.177516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046413, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.325336, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069214, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149243, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828928, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1916, "relative_activity": 0.115274, "balance": 0.828928, "dry_up": 0.260359, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029487, "annualized_volatility": 0.287289, "from_high_reference": -0.203778, "from_low_reference": 0.135604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.614107, "fair_value_reference": 0.889332, "structural_low": 0.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.032142, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.024385, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.054054, "worst_return": -0.089552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.059327, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059902, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": -0.036036, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.187909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.21771, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.013112, "worst_return": -0.514925, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126866, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.516949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": 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0.602351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.6, "volume": 26018, "typical_volume": 32503.2, "trend": 0.622217, "fair_value": 0.918054, "relative_strength": -8.560956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.013796, "energy": 16.929298, "activity_lines": [ 0.593333, 0.588091, 0.585262, 0.600816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.6, "volume": 2369, "typical_volume": 30019.4, "trend": 0.621768, "fair_value": 0.910633, "relative_strength": -7.97698, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.677985, "energy": 19.667364, "activity_lines": [ 0.596667, 0.590273, 0.586433, 0.599383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.59, "volume": 10884, "typical_volume": 28324.0, "trend": 0.619698, "fair_value": 0.903203, "relative_strength": -10.005007, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.759938, "energy": 12.462283, "activity_lines": [ 0.595333, 0.590636, 0.586923, 0.597333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.58, "volume": 2141, "typical_volume": 24639.05, "trend": 0.61665, "fair_value": 0.896203, "relative_strength": -11.140978, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.351326, "energy": 14.245402, "activity_lines": [ 0.589667, 0.589636, 0.586595, 0.594772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6, "volume": 1916, "typical_volume": 16621.25, "trend": 0.614107, "fair_value": 0.889332, "relative_strength": -8.963881, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.717629, "energy": 5.468268, "activity_lines": [ 0.592667, 0.592091, 0.588286, 0.593698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }