{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8205cef-f315-4e1b-ab76-47f9395af0dc", "symbol": "SBX", "name": "SynBiotic SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.13, "architecture_energy": 64.149, "architecture_maturity": 73.378, "architecture_confidence": 93.217, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 28.12, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 50.33, "rotation_down": 55.06, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.1404, 1.174836, 1.374214, 1.553118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.098, "trend_reference": 1.8113, "distance_from_trend": -0.393806, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.384715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.749585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.588991, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.460442, "excess_performance": -0.525082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.393806, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177018, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.749585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159746, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.53589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25224, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.460442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.951629, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86432, "relative_activity": 3.586085, "balance": 0.951629, "dry_up": 1.237862, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167017, "annualized_volatility": 0.774959, "from_high_reference": -0.714434, "from_low_reference": 0.14375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.8113, "fair_value_reference": 4.384715, "structural_low": 0.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.026374, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.043838, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 1.280112, "worst_return": -0.428277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.156135, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.212693, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 1.410758, "worst_return": -0.404145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.316446, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.344785, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.503185, "worst_return": -0.574954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.589036, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.807333, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.711063, "worst_return": -0.639535, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-15", "end": "2022-10-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.182946, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-11-04", "end": "2022-12-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.338939, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.577438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.228888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.45979, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.310897, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066532, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.286004, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.488602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221311, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.431088, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.717575, "volume": 467287, "typical_volume": 90100.9, "trend": 6.829864, "fair_value": 16.700193, "relative_strength": -34.210167, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.865881, "energy": 20.108157, "activity_lines": [ 5.372084, 5.070153, 4.776299, 5.456596 ] }, { "date": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.92625, "energy": 81.876654, "activity_lines": [ 1.172, 1.305782, 1.521043, 1.709028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.226, "volume": 4842, "typical_volume": 20775.15, "trend": 1.935467, "fair_value": 4.430077, "relative_strength": -47.563393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.966333, "energy": 66.791354, "activity_lines": [ 1.195333, 1.267855, 1.475067, 1.659075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.082, "volume": 15546, "typical_volume": 21139.9, "trend": 1.886867, "fair_value": 4.405667, "relative_strength": -53.847623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.271386, "energy": 67.623674, "activity_lines": [ 1.166267, 1.214691, 1.421086, 1.604013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.098, "volume": 86432, "typical_volume": 24102.05, "trend": 1.8113, "fair_value": 4.384715, "relative_strength": -53.588991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.12956, "energy": 64.148707, "activity_lines": [ 1.1404, 1.174836, 1.374214, 1.553118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }