{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b8255366-da87-48ed-8706-a62b681ba05e",
    "symbol": "9846",
    "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares Core CSI 300 Index ETF",
    "exchange": "HKG",
    "country": "HK",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^HSI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 51.056,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 3.968,
    "architecture_energy": 19.229,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.673,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 59.22,
        "rotation_up": 15.48,
        "upward_expansion": 41.13,
        "deceleration": 87.43,
        "rotation_down": 44.24,
        "downward_expansion": 35.13
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4.664533,
        4.712327,
        4.736781,
        4.698731
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 4.73,
    "trend_reference": 4.649,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.017423,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.709997,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274934,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 5.053019,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.051111,
    "excess_performance": 0.084692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017423,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027149,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.274934,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.059333,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05053,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052063,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.051111,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.487602,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 122500,
      "relative_activity": 1.050398,
      "balance": 0.487602,
      "dry_up": 3.113893,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.03168,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.144238,
      "from_high_reference": -0.049055,
      "from_low_reference": 0.239565
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4.649,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.709997,
      "structural_low": 4.258,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": 0.003088,
        "positive_rate": 0.578947,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.578947,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012258,
        "regime_survival": 0.789474,
        "best_return": 0.129151,
        "worst_return": -0.039487,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.025847,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": 0.032205,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.182206,
        "worst_return": -0.099603,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.074866,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.056923,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.212489,
        "worst_return": -0.167537,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.076052,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.040639,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.303264,
        "worst_return": -0.151214,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "end": "2024-06-07",
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        "return": -0.029394,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.026808,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007166,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 76000,
        "typical_volume": 65882.5,
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        "fair_value": 3.672299,
        "relative_strength": 19.986653,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 47.865603,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 61000,
        "typical_volume": 68932.5,
        "trend": 4.6258,
        "fair_value": 3.680614,
        "relative_strength": 14.281485,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.345519,
        "energy": 43.338242,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 4.53,
        "volume": 621000,
        "typical_volume": 88462.5,
        "trend": 4.631267,
        "fair_value": 3.687881,
        "relative_strength": 6.211304,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.816029,
        "energy": 12.920873,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.724,
          4.769564,
          4.74119,
          4.692512
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4.642,
        "volume": 317100,
        "typical_volume": 97602.5,
        "trend": 4.638667,
        "fair_value": 3.694794,
        "relative_strength": 6.679692,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 12.978639,
        "energy": 20.556871,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.6772,
          4.742655,
          4.737524,
          4.693204
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.638,
        "volume": 392000,
        "typical_volume": 114582.5,
        "trend": 4.643667,
        "fair_value": 3.701621,
        "relative_strength": 2.494324,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 1.583215,
        "energy": 20.130558,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.6488,
          4.717782,
          4.732971,
          4.693161
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.73,
        "volume": 122500,
        "typical_volume": 116622.5,
        "trend": 4.649,
        "fair_value": 3.709997,
        "relative_strength": 5.053019,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 3.968122,
        "energy": 19.229107,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.664533,
          4.712327,
          4.736781,
          4.698731
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}