{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b8275862-21f1-4952-854b-b226785fa3ef",
    "symbol": "UET1",
    "name": "UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR dis",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 82.332,
    "architecture_energy": 58.081,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.197,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.106,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.67,
        "rotation_up": 47.77,
        "upward_expansion": 76.76,
        "deceleration": 91.43,
        "rotation_down": 29.72,
        "downward_expansion": 14.76
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        33.689667,
        33.656273,
        33.152191,
        32.307042
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 34.610001,
    "trend_reference": 31.393512,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.102457,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 27.267302,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.269286,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.585675,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.155446,
    "excess_performance": 0.090806,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.102457,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041506,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.269286,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038222,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045857,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048216,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.155446,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.14511,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5278,
      "relative_activity": 0.287568,
      "balance": 2.14511,
      "dry_up": 0.24917,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.021237,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.149944,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000144,
      "from_low_reference": 0.266142
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 31.393512,
      "fair_value_reference": 27.267302,
      "structural_low": 27.334999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.011022,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007952,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.111897,
        "worst_return": -0.075637,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.063719,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.015081,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.13115,
        "worst_return": -0.108339,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.120855,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.05034,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.140321,
        "worst_return": -0.016411,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.027778,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.045747,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.281452,
        "worst_return": -0.238638,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.074976,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.037949,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000769,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.141859,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.047352,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.019893,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011818,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.005426,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.043595,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02278,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.102273,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.039326,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.026267,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "close": 31.040001,
        "volume": 3000,
        "typical_volume": 21730.65,
        "trend": 29.700807,
        "fair_value": 26.146246,
        "relative_strength": 6.412258,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.284592,
        "energy": 29.107238,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.968,
          29.367454,
          29.528939,
          29.628658
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 31.15,
        "volume": 35377,
        "typical_volume": 23107.8,
        "trend": 29.744833,
        "fair_value": 26.217942,
        "relative_strength": 5.816835,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 35.425797,
        "energy": 43.321367,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.579,
          29.712909,
          29.665052,
          29.722155
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 32.375,
        "volume": 9862,
        "typical_volume": 23234.8,
        "trend": 29.843479,
        "fair_value": 26.298399,
        "relative_strength": 9.407301,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.356771,
        "energy": 79.571652,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.352,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 9512,
        "typical_volume": 23463.6,
        "trend": 29.938635,
        "fair_value": 26.375877,
        "relative_strength": 10.800646,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.160203,
        "energy": 89.084416,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.839,
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          30.054199
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 15599,
        "typical_volume": 23273.0,
        "trend": 30.035835,
        "fair_value": 26.454483,
        "relative_strength": 7.803331,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.047824,
        "energy": 91.431634,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.263667,
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          30.415581,
          30.239449
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 33.470001,
        "volume": 15889,
        "typical_volume": 23370.45,
        "trend": 30.142411,
        "fair_value": 26.533904,
        "relative_strength": 8.695985,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.392041,
        "energy": 93.858752,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.771334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 33.18,
        "volume": 1333,
        "typical_volume": 20330.0,
        "trend": 30.27387,
        "fair_value": 26.610243,
        "relative_strength": 8.908019,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.27713,
        "energy": 88.560119,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.020334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 33.365002,
        "volume": 2893,
        "typical_volume": 20118.15,
        "trend": 30.399038,
        "fair_value": 26.683161,
        "relative_strength": 9.746558,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.823598,
        "energy": 87.540514,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 30.569261,
        "fair_value": 26.761206,
        "relative_strength": 9.058439,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.505648,
        "energy": 88.240625,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.423334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 33.470001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 18961.75,
        "trend": 30.686966,
        "fair_value": 26.834264,
        "relative_strength": 9.323324,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.495054,
        "energy": 80.538304,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.477001,
          33.129728,
          31.846691,
          31.257809
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 34.07,
        "volume": 33,
        "typical_volume": 18432.6,
        "trend": 30.812877,
        "fair_value": 26.911795,
        "relative_strength": 6.288846,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.23119,
        "energy": 84.962521,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.686667,
          33.37991,
          32.146691,
          31.47607
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 34.084999,
        "volume": 6260,
        "typical_volume": 18573.65,
        "trend": 30.945767,
        "fair_value": 26.985253,
        "relative_strength": 9.030594,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.775907,
        "energy": 81.33306,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.861333,
          33.577728,
          32.428738,
          31.687174
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 33.185001,
        "volume": 8730,
        "typical_volume": 18830.55,
        "trend": 31.051148,
        "fair_value": 27.052314,
        "relative_strength": 6.886594,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.273069,
        "energy": 63.798139,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.675667,
          33.558546,
          32.60531,
          31.831641
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 33.0,
        "volume": 2622,
        "typical_volume": 18721.45,
        "trend": 31.145213,
        "fair_value": 27.117877,
        "relative_strength": 4.951607,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.166567,
        "energy": 56.349615,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.440333,
          33.491,
          32.748239,
          31.957373
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 33.209999,
        "volume": 1663,
        "typical_volume": 18562.3,
        "trend": 31.254916,
        "fair_value": 27.186697,
        "relative_strength": 3.278684,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.868136,
        "energy": 44.708256,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.323,
          33.45,
          32.894715,
          32.090585
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 34.610001,
        "volume": 5278,
        "typical_volume": 18353.9,
        "trend": 31.393512,
        "fair_value": 27.267302,
        "relative_strength": 4.585675,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.331584,
        "energy": 58.081207,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.689667,
          33.656273,
          33.152191,
          32.307042
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}