{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b82f58b5-3498-4192-8175-3c8e05da6b15", "symbol": "QLYS", "name": "Qualys Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.402, "architecture_energy": 71.949, "architecture_maturity": 36.388, "architecture_confidence": 72.483, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.39, "rotation_up": 77.93, "upward_expansion": 84.86, "deceleration": 64.95, "rotation_down": 11.35, "downward_expansion": 11.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 158.692667, 148.536364, 129.318857, 119.581462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 183.48, "trend_reference": 112.492, "distance_from_trend": 0.631049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 139.784167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312595, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.662779, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.655957, "excess_performance": 0.468503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.631049, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011534, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.312595, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.63882, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.306628, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.682128, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.655957, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.937358, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5629235, "relative_activity": 1.404477, "balance": 5.937358, "dry_up": 1.034507, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100848, "annualized_volatility": 0.65747, "from_high_reference": -0.08961, "from_low_reference": 1.462488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.492, "fair_value_reference": 139.784167, "structural_low": 74.51, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.016592, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.008863, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.167698, "worst_return": -0.136176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.052974, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.020876, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.327525, "worst_return": -0.324461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019719, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.065636, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.517823, "worst_return": -0.312597, "sufficient": 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"close": 159.43, "volume": 3453143, "typical_volume": 3829348.5, "trend": 110.383333, "fair_value": 139.558205, "relative_strength": 17.61282, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.208945, "energy": 95.657021, "activity_lines": [ 147.340667, 132.774364, 115.734714, 110.926237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.48, "volume": 3643852, "typical_volume": 3861267.1, "trend": 110.356333, "fair_value": 139.568526, "relative_strength": 3.489282, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.868439, "energy": 87.161066, "activity_lines": [ 146.846667, 135.632, 118.766381, 112.674409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 144.75, "volume": 3859253, "typical_volume": 3926955.75, "trend": 110.814333, "fair_value": 139.575705, "relative_strength": 8.647625, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.714386, "energy": 78.762394, "activity_lines": [ 147.030667, 138.948545, 122.305571, 114.893355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 183.48, "volume": 5629235, "typical_volume": 4008064.95, "trend": 112.492, "fair_value": 139.784167, "relative_strength": 30.662779, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.401939, "energy": 71.948712, "activity_lines": [ 158.692667, 148.536364, 129.318857, 119.581462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }