{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b837540b-6c42-46d0-9b3f-8f969a818c6a", "symbol": "TRV", "name": "T.R.V. Rubber Products Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.623, "architecture_energy": 35.868, "architecture_maturity": 33.716, "architecture_confidence": 94.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.36, "rotation_up": 26.42, "upward_expansion": 4.64, "deceleration": 51.09, "rotation_down": 39.07, "downward_expansion": 73.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.486, 1.488182, 1.522, 1.564538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.46, "trend_reference": 1.589, "distance_from_trend": -0.081183, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.185321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.331906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.669256, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.192325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081183, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.331906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.011232, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27500, "relative_activity": 0.032751, "balance": 0.011232, "dry_up": 2.096348, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063224, "annualized_volatility": 0.315317, "from_high_reference": -0.359649, "from_low_reference": 0.114504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.589, "fair_value_reference": 2.185321, "structural_low": 1.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.005376, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.016347, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.256757, "worst_return": -0.226667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.027407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03504, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.680672, "worst_return": -0.336667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.098347, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.267974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037838, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.282759, "active": false }, { "regime": 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21300, "typical_volume": 2275937.5, "trend": 1.604, "fair_value": 2.241987, "relative_strength": -25.214024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.229743, "energy": 32.843572, "activity_lines": [ 1.493333, 1.493273, 1.574095, 1.592946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.51, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 2275882.5, "trend": 1.600667, "fair_value": 2.227821, "relative_strength": -25.604088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.506657, "energy": 28.090969, "activity_lines": [ 1.502, 1.493091, 1.562238, 1.586882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5, "volume": 7009200, "typical_volume": 2619352.5, "trend": 1.599333, "fair_value": 2.21359, "relative_strength": -25.852896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.538236, "energy": 26.47695, "activity_lines": [ 1.503333, 1.492727, 1.549619, 1.580387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.49, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 2616487.5, "trend": 1.596333, "fair_value": 2.199423, "relative_strength": -25.253856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.768819, "energy": 28.283616, "activity_lines": [ 1.500667, 1.492909, 1.536381, 1.573333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.46, "volume": 27500, "typical_volume": 839662.5, "trend": 1.589, "fair_value": 2.185321, "relative_strength": -25.669256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.622716, "energy": 35.868126, "activity_lines": [ 1.486, 1.488182, 1.522, 1.564538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }