{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b847d9e6-efdd-4fcc-a348-b3d4fb284426", "symbol": "600491", "name": "Long Yuan Construction Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.37, "architecture_energy": 52.239, "architecture_maturity": 91.741, "architecture_confidence": 87.327, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.43, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 45.02, "rotation_down": 38.48, "downward_expansion": 63.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.241333, 1.205273, 1.351429, 1.681763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.23, "trend_reference": 2.124667, "distance_from_trend": -0.421086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.250449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.621591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.89531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.613208, "excess_performance": -0.570004, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.421086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221163, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.621591, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.528953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006129, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.613208, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181219404, "relative_activity": 0.84673, "balance": 0.604245, "dry_up": 1.87191, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1207, "annualized_volatility": 0.705706, "from_high_reference": -0.683805, "from_low_reference": 0.217822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.124667, "fair_value_reference": 3.250449, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.016072, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.023191, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.284585, "worst_return": -0.310881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.041454, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.059826, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.722488, "worst_return": -0.55873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.081633, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.079888, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.578125, "worst_return": -0.375262, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.334211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073826, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.225519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022785, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -48.848534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.488928, "energy": 80.325781, "activity_lines": [ 1.169333, 1.205273, 1.518, 1.873097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.23, "volume": 459791943, "typical_volume": 203148587.3, "trend": 2.220333, "fair_value": 3.295513, "relative_strength": -53.156108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.17324, "energy": 63.782513, "activity_lines": [ 1.198, 1.202182, 1.452762, 1.805763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.24, "volume": 285016104, "typical_volume": 210696570.05, "trend": 2.171667, "fair_value": 3.273718, "relative_strength": -52.097785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.096074, "energy": 56.008812, "activity_lines": [ 1.228667, 1.203818, 1.398095, 1.742516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.23, "volume": 181219404, "typical_volume": 214022590.1, "trend": 2.124667, "fair_value": 3.250449, "relative_strength": -52.89531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.370296, "energy": 52.239008, "activity_lines": [ 1.241333, 1.205273, 1.351429, 1.681763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }