{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b84c69c6-909b-45c2-85cc-316fb2dbc8a9", "symbol": "PHG", "name": "Koninklijke Philips NV ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.339, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.392, "architecture_energy": 17.75, "architecture_maturity": 41.828, "architecture_confidence": 65.538, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.98, "rotation_up": 17.21, "upward_expansion": 11.51, "deceleration": 56.56, "rotation_down": 45.32, "downward_expansion": 63.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.577333, 26.779636, 26.661054, 26.794027 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.73, "trend_reference": 27.171315, "distance_from_trend": -0.016242, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.257376, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.823799, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056806, "excess_performance": -0.18243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002333, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056806, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.395389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4623336, "relative_activity": 0.809962, "balance": 1.395389, "dry_up": 1.211374, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05261, "annualized_volatility": 0.291639, "from_high_reference": -0.168939, "from_low_reference": 0.120755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.171315, "fair_value_reference": 24.257376, "structural_low": 23.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006348, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.000914, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.164601, "worst_return": -0.279294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043952, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.053606, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.17001, "worst_return": -0.293154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024946, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.181344, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.202439, "worst_return": -0.467283, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009883, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111195, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089116, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095537, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011522, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.602214, "volume": 5210498, "typical_volume": 5169465.65, "trend": 17.928875, "fair_value": 30.676654, "relative_strength": 17.441457, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", 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27.098, 26.734112, 26.648049, 26.949113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.4, "volume": 4334471, "typical_volume": 5192538.2, "trend": 27.173701, "fair_value": 24.081572, "relative_strength": -8.275286, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.982747, "energy": 17.419352, "activity_lines": [ 27.285333, 26.914098, 26.691661, 26.967567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.95, "volume": 4846511, "typical_volume": 5264352.55, "trend": 27.217156, "fair_value": 24.117207, "relative_strength": -8.283242, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.099731, "energy": 15.164013, "activity_lines": [ 27.236667, 26.971636, 26.705136, 26.953134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.17, "volume": 4075183, "typical_volume": 5226935.55, "trend": 27.220183, "fair_value": 24.16075, "relative_strength": -10.214814, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.677321, "energy": 12.358333, "activity_lines": [ 26.895333, 26.873273, 26.66258, 26.885576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.3, "volume": 14113510, "typical_volume": 5714326.75, "trend": 27.228825, "fair_value": 24.206555, "relative_strength": -10.477118, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.047651, "energy": 15.618318, "activity_lines": [ 26.638, 26.781455, 26.640309, 26.826209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.73, "volume": 4623336, "typical_volume": 5708092.8, "trend": 27.171315, "fair_value": 24.257376, "relative_strength": -11.823799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.39236, "energy": 17.74996, "activity_lines": [ 26.577333, 26.779636, 26.661054, 26.794027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }