{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b84ee1e2-02b6-4ccf-b2df-09432b8d4343",
    "symbol": "1F3",
    "name": "Aspen (Group) Holdings Limited",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -76.852,
    "architecture_energy": 72.403,
    "architecture_maturity": 71.432,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.816,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 1.04,
        "rotation_up": 10.62,
        "upward_expansion": 13.85,
        "deceleration": 42.22,
        "rotation_down": 80.54,
        "downward_expansion": 91.85
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.025133,
        0.026509,
        0.0286,
        0.029826
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 0.024,
    "trend_reference": 0.0317,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.242902,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.038327,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.373808,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -42.922163,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.333333,
    "excess_performance": -0.488168,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.242902,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.10283,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.373808,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.202769,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.429222,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.187387,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.333333,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.133511,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 103800,
      "relative_activity": 0.151362,
      "balance": 0.133511,
      "dry_up": 0.346506,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.115385,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.394784,
      "from_high_reference": -0.510204,
      "from_low_reference": 0.043478
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.0317,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.038327,
      "structural_low": 0.023,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 45,
        "median_return": -0.036145,
        "positive_rate": 0.288889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.058096,
        "regime_survival": 0.911111,
        "best_return": 0.727273,
        "worst_return": -0.224299,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": -0.104082,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.125499,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.863636,
        "worst_return": -0.351852,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.156863,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.203317,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.464286,
        "worst_return": -0.514286,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.275163,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.386167,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.607143,
        "worst_return": -0.694611,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-02-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.263158,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045455,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.075,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.046512,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.111111,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.163265,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.022727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": -0.047619,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.333333,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 2197240.0,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 0.0385,
        "relative_strength": -34.244726,
        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 1265905.0,
        "trend": 0.0331,
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        "relative_strength": -38.581458,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -80.763837,
        "energy": 84.501343,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.0274,
          0.028982,
          0.030214,
          0.03131
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.027,
        "volume": 193300,
        "typical_volume": 959530.0,
        "trend": 0.0327,
        "fair_value": 0.038423,
        "relative_strength": -36.318887,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.694948,
        "energy": 61.269908,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.027133,
          0.028418,
          0.029838,
          0.030916
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.024,
        "volume": 638800,
        "typical_volume": 906560.0,
        "trend": 0.0322,
        "fair_value": 0.038378,
        "relative_strength": -43.023557,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -82.162926,
        "energy": 67.184873,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.026067,
          0.027382,
          0.0292,
          0.030355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.024,
        "volume": 103800,
        "typical_volume": 685775.0,
        "trend": 0.0317,
        "fair_value": 0.038327,
        "relative_strength": -42.922163,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.852292,
        "energy": 72.402768,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.025133,
          0.026509,
          0.0286,
          0.029826
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}