{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b85127e2-010f-4cbe-a1c0-921090a3f33d", "symbol": "SDR", "name": "SiteMinder Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.904, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.753, "architecture_energy": 15.868, "architecture_maturity": 30.843, "architecture_confidence": 59.167, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.31, "rotation_up": 22.37, "upward_expansion": 23.22, "deceleration": 66.62, "rotation_down": 50.69, "downward_expansion": 34.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.478667, 3.599273, 3.501714, 3.449398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.75, "trend_reference": 3.592, "distance_from_trend": 0.043987, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.088462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.263039, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.676734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076355, "excess_performance": -0.14006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.263039, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122307, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266767, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126709, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.989879, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6646922, "relative_activity": 0.995924, "balance": 0.989879, "dry_up": 0.976983, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106154, "annualized_volatility": 0.630622, "from_high_reference": -0.528894, "from_low_reference": 0.442308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.592, "fair_value_reference": 5.088462, "structural_low": 2.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.065173, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.030501, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.205634, "worst_return": -0.037523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.332652, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.318627, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.640625, "worst_return": -0.009381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.40625, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.377063, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": 0.227017, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002146, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.301318, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.261818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.17052, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101299, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.198083, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.28, "volume": 1179095, "typical_volume": 2323782.65, "trend": 3.525667, "fair_value": 4.143011, "relative_strength": 27.164139, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", 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3.629636, 3.454762, 3.470194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.35, "volume": 4951505, "typical_volume": 6871353.35, "trend": 3.665, "fair_value": 5.091859, "relative_strength": -32.868415, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.48755, "energy": 27.461099, "activity_lines": [ 3.404, 3.583273, 3.459571, 3.443914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.75, "volume": 6646922, "typical_volume": 6674125.05, "trend": 3.592, "fair_value": 5.088462, "relative_strength": -26.676734, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.753184, "energy": 15.867571, "activity_lines": [ 3.478667, 3.599273, 3.501714, 3.449398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }