{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b858a058-940a-49a3-b9a5-e0f3f0e2c2fc", "symbol": "UT1EUA", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Treasury 1-3 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.399, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.754, "architecture_energy": 46.155, "architecture_maturity": 66.273, "architecture_confidence": 52.365, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.5, "rotation_up": 47.22, "upward_expansion": 71.68, "deceleration": 62.48, "rotation_down": 26.51, "downward_expansion": 19.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.283, 21.298273, 21.169119, 21.088144 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.184999, "trend_reference": 20.968325, "distance_from_trend": 0.010333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.851593, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015989, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.948256, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.028573, "excess_performance": -0.142319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008384, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015989, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016801, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009131, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028573, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.93901, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2301, "relative_activity": 1.939481, "balance": 0.93901, "dry_up": 0.850051, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006118, "annualized_volatility": 0.052756, "from_high_reference": -0.013504, "from_low_reference": 0.045803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.968325, "fair_value_reference": 20.851593, "structural_low": 20.445, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.002936, "positive_rate": 0.542857, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.012697, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.03791, "worst_return": -0.041269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012125, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.071358, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.063319, "worst_return": -0.063343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003852, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.066553, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.080868, "worst_return": -0.039136, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 21.35, "volume": 652, "typical_volume": 1342.5, "trend": 20.885497, "fair_value": 20.806848, "relative_strength": -11.854969, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.193356, "energy": 89.747664, "activity_lines": [ 21.328666, 21.206091, 21.068405, 20.989378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.370001, "volume": 470, "typical_volume": 1320.9, "trend": 20.908658, "fair_value": 20.81946, "relative_strength": -10.179434, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.720057, "energy": 89.175827, "activity_lines": [ 21.358333, 21.255727, 21.103095, 21.020637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.43, "volume": 697, "typical_volume": 1323.05, "trend": 20.937753, "fair_value": 20.831485, "relative_strength": -9.475653, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.810038, "energy": 90.087356, "activity_lines": [ 21.386667, 21.304364, 21.140238, 21.054272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.235001, "volume": 566, "typical_volume": 1277.95, "trend": 20.957233, "fair_value": 20.842119, "relative_strength": -10.524941, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.441337, "energy": 59.711851, "activity_lines": [ 21.336667, 21.308273, 21.157024, 21.073449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.184999, "volume": 2301, "typical_volume": 1186.4, "trend": 20.968325, "fair_value": 20.851593, "relative_strength": -12.948256, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.753924, "energy": 46.154545, "activity_lines": [ 21.283, 21.298273, 21.169119, 21.088144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }