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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.628, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.149, "architecture_energy": 21.503, "architecture_maturity": 56.939, "architecture_confidence": 69.762, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.65, "rotation_up": 36.21, "upward_expansion": 63.43, "deceleration": 84.43, "rotation_down": 26.27, "downward_expansion": 15.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.023333, 50.396516, 49.549858, 48.787486 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 48.75, "trend_reference": 48.263825, "distance_from_trend": 0.010073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.957007, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.18017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076919, "excess_performance": -0.202544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010073, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.690839, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5943172, "relative_activity": 1.175635, "balance": 0.690839, "dry_up": 1.251234, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061507, "annualized_volatility": 0.293802, "from_high_reference": -0.106734, "from_low_reference": 0.240296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.263825, "fair_value_reference": 41.957007, "structural_low": 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.942971, "energy": 67.82619, "activity_lines": [ 50.952114, 49.703728, 48.570764, 48.130211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.57, "volume": 5686110, "typical_volume": 4964029.4, "trend": 47.865979, "fair_value": 41.590067, "relative_strength": 5.822584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.596179, "energy": 78.235812, "activity_lines": [ 51.98117, 50.55597, 49.164783, 48.515984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.27, "volume": 7654078, "typical_volume": 5043598.75, "trend": 48.035087, "fair_value": 41.717898, "relative_strength": -0.044803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.62129, "energy": 59.400566, "activity_lines": [ 51.64788, 50.721304, 49.404502, 48.671082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.29, "volume": 6018027, "typical_volume": 4994100.95, "trend": 48.200654, "fair_value": 41.838098, "relative_strength": -2.995419, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.212282, "energy": 36.528735, "activity_lines": [ 50.844885, 50.622819, 49.517463, 48.752044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.75, "volume": 5943172, "typical_volume": 5055286.25, "trend": 48.263825, "fair_value": 41.957007, "relative_strength": -7.18017, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.148685, "energy": 21.503335, "activity_lines": [ 50.023333, 50.396516, 49.549858, 48.787486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }