{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b85d7f22-e8f8-4762-98da-68110c173f0d", "symbol": "HSS", "name": "Lion-OCBC Securities Hang Seng TECH ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.99, "architecture_energy": 21.654, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.452, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.3, "rotation_up": 35.24, "upward_expansion": 21.23, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 21.18, "downward_expansion": 55.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.593867, 0.584691, 0.590971, 0.599359 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.602, "trend_reference": 0.6195, "distance_from_trend": -0.028249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.576314, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.479652, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102832, "excess_performance": -0.257667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044569, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08949, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.375688, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33140, "relative_activity": 0.533756, "balance": 0.375688, "dry_up": 0.956514, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034117, "annualized_volatility": 0.238259, "from_high_reference": -0.283333, "from_low_reference": 0.13371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.6195, "fair_value_reference": 0.576314, "structural_low": 0.531, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.002452, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019447, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.251732, "worst_return": -0.199593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008567, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002105, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.099379, "worst_return": -0.138596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045351, "worst_return": -0.096491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.593557, 0.608746 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.586, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 91685.0, "trend": 0.6302, "fair_value": 0.575481, "relative_strength": -25.810096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.810006, "energy": 54.391261, "activity_lines": [ 0.574267, 0.579945, 0.592038, 0.605669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.584, "volume": 55790, "typical_volume": 70156.6, "trend": 0.626467, "fair_value": 0.575686, "relative_strength": -26.48781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.079129, "energy": 39.888984, "activity_lines": [ 0.579133, 0.579291, 0.590595, 0.602688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.596, "volume": 148618, "typical_volume": 76587.8, "trend": 0.623133, "fair_value": 0.575981, "relative_strength": -24.873638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.751673, "energy": 23.619798, "activity_lines": [ 0.587467, 0.5814, 0.590429, 0.600723 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.602, "volume": 33140, "typical_volume": 62088.25, "trend": 0.6195, "fair_value": 0.576314, "relative_strength": -24.479652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.990327, "energy": 21.6545, "activity_lines": [ 0.593867, 0.584691, 0.590971, 0.599359 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }