{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b862d90a-20af-42a8-8a84-e043d790ea34", "symbol": "KHANDSE", "name": "Khandwala Securities Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.327, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.175, "architecture_energy": 3.871, "architecture_maturity": 24.2, "architecture_confidence": 50.779, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.08, "rotation_up": 28.05, "upward_expansion": 22.39, "deceleration": 57.29, "rotation_down": 28.55, "downward_expansion": 26.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.65, 17.718545, 17.570619, 17.358946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.4, "trend_reference": 17.440333, "distance_from_trend": -0.002313, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.705192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.295695, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.701707, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.083728, "excess_performance": -0.040019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002313, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070543, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.295695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026956, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038902, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083728, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.849841, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5527, "relative_activity": 0.301487, "balance": 1.849841, "dry_up": 0.677105, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092396, "annualized_volatility": 0.324968, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.42623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.440333, "fair_value_reference": 24.705192, "structural_low": 12.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.006448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015276, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.167568, "worst_return": -0.124381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.018302, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032777, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.225352, "worst_return": -0.2106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.056576, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.112915, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.44507, "worst_return": -0.153105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.110245, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.21012, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.121127, "worst_return": -0.245194, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058716, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095495, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10017, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141713, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040504, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.216204, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014164, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 27.75, "volume": 22941, "typical_volume": 194315.45, "trend": 29.621666, "fair_value": 22.799679, "relative_strength": -15.040192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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17.769454, 17.36219, 17.341247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.83, "volume": 5391, "typical_volume": 19428.65, "trend": 17.635667, "fair_value": 24.829038, "relative_strength": -6.601095, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.138257, "energy": 5.735492, "activity_lines": [ 17.649333, 17.788727, 17.444857, 17.347656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.93, "volume": 16488, "typical_volume": 18344.4, "trend": 17.519333, "fair_value": 24.768974, "relative_strength": -7.89616, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.422639, "energy": 5.942384, "activity_lines": [ 17.746667, 17.805636, 17.537238, 17.366645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.4, "volume": 5527, "typical_volume": 18332.45, "trend": 17.440333, "fair_value": 24.705192, "relative_strength": -10.701707, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.17456, "energy": 3.871146, "activity_lines": [ 17.65, 17.718545, 17.570619, 17.358946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }