{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b86489b1-5a64-499f-8423-7ccdbb95e419", "symbol": "XDEX", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets ex China UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.472, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.541, "architecture_energy": 26.459, "architecture_maturity": 65.887, "architecture_confidence": 86.249, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.7, "rotation_up": 17.22, "upward_expansion": 52.57, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 40.99, "downward_expansion": 20.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 152.921338, 157.126186, 156.507527, 151.636174 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 153.800003, "trend_reference": 144.945668, "distance_from_trend": 0.061087, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 105.956022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.451546, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.465854, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.182531, "excess_performance": 0.011639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061087, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115224, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.451546, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116256, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024659, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.182531, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.033971, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2652, "relative_activity": 2.232793, "balance": 1.033971, "dry_up": 1.710166, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054566, "annualized_volatility": 0.277801, "from_high_reference": -0.111701, "from_low_reference": 0.555273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 144.945668, "fair_value_reference": 105.956022, "structural_low": 123.519997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002102, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.001346, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.126366, "worst_return": -0.025136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035849, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.031528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.297378, "worst_return": -0.011266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004891, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.044278, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233021, "worst_return": -0.043594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 166.268002, 162.822002, 153.931525, 147.535894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 162.740005, "volume": 659, "typical_volume": 1503.5, "trend": 140.298001, "fair_value": 104.340125, "relative_strength": 12.01024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.339526, "energy": 64.638592, "activity_lines": [ 165.649336, 163.431093, 155.455907, 149.092238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 150.830002, "volume": 2274, "typical_volume": 1309.8, "trend": 141.555334, "fair_value": 104.745766, "relative_strength": 4.981495, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.892547, "energy": 42.295372, "activity_lines": [ 160.61267, 161.539639, 155.724716, 149.771722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 153.380005, "volume": 1416, "typical_volume": 1271.9, "trend": 142.870001, "fair_value": 105.140958, "relative_strength": 6.548142, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.625552, "energy": 25.051475, "activity_lines": [ 157.162004, 160.222003, 156.184716, 150.534604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.070007, "volume": 1783, "typical_volume": 1157.2, "trend": 143.925668, "fair_value": 105.52942, "relative_strength": 3.24326, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.856348, "energy": 25.599005, "activity_lines": [ 153.870671, 158.289095, 156.219669, 150.99912 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 153.800003, "volume": 2652, "typical_volume": 1187.75, "trend": 144.945668, "fair_value": 105.956022, "relative_strength": 2.465854, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.541174, "energy": 26.458912, "activity_lines": [ 152.921338, 157.126186, 156.507527, 151.636174 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }