{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8673835-b6d2-4655-9146-af52608cf1c9", "symbol": "EMUSRI", "name": "UBS MSCI EMU Socially Responsible UCITS ETF EUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.188, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.473, "architecture_energy": 59.135, "architecture_maturity": 75.323, "architecture_confidence": 47.411, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.23, "rotation_up": 46.56, "upward_expansion": 74.31, "deceleration": 73.84, "rotation_down": 29.3, "downward_expansion": 14.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.103999, 35.057636, 34.512619, 33.854333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.919998, "trend_reference": 33.178167, "distance_from_trend": 0.08264, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.197532, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.230241, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.401443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.106252, "excess_performance": -0.06464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08264, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030874, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.230241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063342, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028038, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.335071, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16821, "relative_activity": 1.721928, "balance": 3.335071, "dry_up": 1.40446, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018706, "annualized_volatility": 0.153852, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.230558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.178167, "fair_value_reference": 29.197532, "structural_low": 29.190001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.008063, "positive_rate": 0.540541, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.009219, "regime_survival": 0.72973, "best_return": 0.07329, "worst_return": -0.088408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024458, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.037522, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.081124, "worst_return": -0.080056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041874, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.060553, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.108933, "worst_return": -0.026919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.128015, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.078956, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.174343, "worst_return": -0.138983, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.097059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009109, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014624, "active": false 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34.944334, 34.419, 33.394214, 33.007204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 35.535, "volume": 49, "typical_volume": 8179.5, "trend": 32.732833, "fair_value": 28.869551, "relative_strength": -6.01986, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.031766, "energy": 90.918944, "activity_lines": [ 35.187334, 34.715818, 33.656524, 33.195774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.959999, "volume": 9042, "typical_volume": 8581.95, "trend": 32.838833, "fair_value": 28.934231, "relative_strength": -6.907664, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.338288, "energy": 83.585673, "activity_lines": [ 35.162666, 34.852455, 33.849071, 33.339462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.445, "volume": 13755, "typical_volume": 9219.05, "trend": 32.912333, "fair_value": 28.995609, "relative_strength": -6.709248, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.898315, "energy": 59.833533, "activity_lines": [ 34.932666, 34.849273, 33.982476, 33.443086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.630001, "volume": 16953, "typical_volume": 9677.5, "trend": 32.9945, "fair_value": 29.059487, "relative_strength": -5.824369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.426083, "energy": 49.388516, "activity_lines": [ 34.791667, 34.855091, 34.128024, 33.553903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.805, "volume": 7350, "typical_volume": 9135.9, "trend": 33.073833, "fair_value": 29.125288, "relative_strength": -5.80727, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.681718, "energy": 40.385051, "activity_lines": [ 34.755667, 34.861364, 34.275857, 33.67071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.919998, "volume": 16821, "typical_volume": 9768.7, "trend": 33.178167, "fair_value": 29.197532, "relative_strength": -5.401443, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.472999, "energy": 59.135138, "activity_lines": [ 35.103999, 35.057636, 34.512619, 33.854333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }