{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b86bc854-b43b-4c09-a01f-d20c13493886", "symbol": "FEC", "name": "Frontera Energy Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.097, "architecture_energy": 87.322, "architecture_maturity": 28.525, "architecture_confidence": 90.516, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.56, "rotation_up": 24.71, "upward_expansion": 21.57, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 61.1, "downward_expansion": 94.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.687333, 8.89482, 9.36969, 9.979333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.1, "trend_reference": 10.246016, "distance_from_trend": -0.209449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.917506, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.955623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.208984, "excess_performance": -0.329406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209449, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113898, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023049, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107641, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208984, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.34102, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 284200, "relative_activity": 0.775708, "balance": 1.34102, "dry_up": 1.173047, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073377, "annualized_volatility": 0.717357, "from_high_reference": -0.461436, "from_low_reference": 0.644832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.246016, "fair_value_reference": 7.917506, "structural_low": 7.97, "invalidation": 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"Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.430904, "energy": 51.309889, "activity_lines": [ 9.02709, 9.322201, 10.115938, 10.308052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.0, "volume": 604100, "typical_volume": 460295.0, "trend": 9.999374, "fair_value": 7.946176, "relative_strength": 0.256525, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.391448, "energy": 59.718026, "activity_lines": [ 8.917546, 9.252194, 9.927459, 10.250056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.05, "volume": 316000, "typical_volume": 432850.0, "trend": 10.100816, "fair_value": 7.939575, "relative_strength": 0.25759, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.504184, "energy": 73.313681, "activity_lines": [ 8.91, 9.192554, 9.755171, 10.188806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.94, "volume": 514800, "typical_volume": 397185.0, "trend": 10.186016, "fair_value": 7.931355, "relative_strength": -0.742562, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.551663, "energy": 77.071066, "activity_lines": [ 8.953333, 9.116772, 9.591645, 10.113915 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.1, "volume": 284200, "typical_volume": 366375.0, "trend": 10.246016, "fair_value": 7.917506, "relative_strength": -12.955623, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.097079, "energy": 87.322161, "activity_lines": [ 8.687333, 8.89482, 9.36969, 9.979333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }