{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b87a2fb2-d153-476c-b769-fdc3e583971e", "symbol": "XCF", "name": "KTMG Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.041, "architecture_energy": 94.22, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.193, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.75, "rotation_up": 8.09, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 79.92, "downward_expansion": 93.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0292, 0.0326, 0.037033, 0.039456 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.027, "trend_reference": 0.042, "distance_from_trend": -0.357143, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.090763, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.702521, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.404202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.386364, "excess_performance": -0.541199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.357143, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103203, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.702521, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.504042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.566047, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.386364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.009201, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096866, "annualized_volatility": 0.817002, "from_high_reference": -0.55, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.042, "fair_value_reference": 0.090763, "structural_low": 0.027, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.005155, "positive_rate": 0.340909, "directional_follow_through": 0.522727, "median_excess_return": -0.023342, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.483333, "worst_return": -0.289474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.030692, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.31, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.070746, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.150627, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.15942, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.254902, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.431978, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": -0.005208, "worst_return": -0.528, "sufficient": true } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025907, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005236, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.6, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08046, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.137255, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.289474, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.193, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1490.0, "trend": 0.1928, "fair_value": 0.196122, "relative_strength": 1.408366, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.846484, "energy": 7.206658, 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"close": 0.038, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15810.0, "trend": 0.044433, "fair_value": 0.094929, "relative_strength": -31.646103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.473474, "energy": 50.39642, "activity_lines": [ 0.038, 0.038618, 0.041857, 0.04303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.038, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15810.0, "trend": 0.044033, "fair_value": 0.093942, "relative_strength": -31.459948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.06155, "energy": 46.647719, "activity_lines": [ 0.038, 0.038109, 0.041338, 0.042615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.027, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 15110.0, "trend": 0.043333, "fair_value": 0.092885, "relative_strength": -51.34635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.974632, "energy": 65.223524, "activity_lines": [ 0.034333, 0.036, 0.039819, 0.041516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.027, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13585.0, "trend": 0.0426, "fair_value": 0.091827, "relative_strength": -50.467894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.952381, "energy": 96.29633, "activity_lines": [ 0.0314, 0.0342, 0.038386, 0.040462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.027, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13585.0, "trend": 0.042, "fair_value": 0.090763, "relative_strength": -50.404202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.040912, "energy": 94.219712, "activity_lines": [ 0.0292, 0.0326, 0.037033, 0.039456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }