{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b87bb40c-c154-4458-97ed-381cd35d2834", "symbol": "APPF", "name": "Appfolio Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.369, "architecture_energy": 54.202, "architecture_maturity": 22.259, "architecture_confidence": 53.618, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.17, "rotation_up": 68.52, "upward_expansion": 59.97, "deceleration": 22.07, "rotation_down": 17.63, "downward_expansion": 18.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 182.976667, 175.673091, 169.539905, 168.838237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 198.74, "trend_reference": 172.3315, "distance_from_trend": 0.153242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 216.136314, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080488, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.278654, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105801, "excess_performance": -0.081653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153242, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111066, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148939, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.220784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105801, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.508722, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2355890, "relative_activity": 1.29572, "balance": 1.508722, "dry_up": 1.201048, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092739, "annualized_volatility": 0.459646, "from_high_reference": -0.315975, "from_low_reference": 0.39408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 172.3315, "fair_value_reference": 216.136314, "structural_low": 142.56, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.042072, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.03533, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.134587, "worst_return": -0.135323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.076992, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.002177, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.261006, "worst_return": -0.144804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.097088, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.056137, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.387177, "worst_return": -0.227687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.161341, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.084176, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.537694, "worst_return": -0.32151, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109369, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195017, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031852, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137345, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017528, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019295, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.342772, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168866, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.279784, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131906, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 166.96, "volume": 512379, "typical_volume": 532450.0, "trend": 145.991333, "fair_value": 131.240256, "relative_strength": 11.890752, "stage": 2, "regime": 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171.763333, 166.946545, 164.529286, 167.648032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 165.05, "volume": 2679856, "typical_volume": 1789579.75, "trend": 174.932167, "fair_value": 215.937853, "relative_strength": -28.76693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.399085, "energy": 16.023506, "activity_lines": [ 171.223333, 167.150364, 164.578619, 166.855118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 180.19, "volume": 2227647, "typical_volume": 1813716.3, "trend": 173.2595, "fair_value": 215.967724, "relative_strength": -21.242524, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.945555, "energy": 27.827487, "activity_lines": [ 174.826667, 169.864182, 166.194238, 167.194333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 198.74, "volume": 2355890, "typical_volume": 1818209.5, "trend": 172.3315, "fair_value": 216.136314, "relative_strength": -16.278654, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.369367, "energy": 54.20162, "activity_lines": [ 182.976667, 175.673091, 169.539905, 168.838237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }