{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b87c2393-2fa2-4e28-9bcb-bf55885a1504", "symbol": "CMO", "name": "Caisse R\u00e9gionale de Cr\u00e9dit Agricole du Morbihan", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.014, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -6.055, "architecture_energy": 19.314, "architecture_maturity": 49.218, "architecture_confidence": 84.33, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.49, "rotation_up": 14.43, "upward_expansion": 41.85, "deceleration": 86.03, "rotation_down": 44.32, "downward_expansion": 35.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.682668, 118.348365, 119.807322, 116.838311 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 111.0, "trend_reference": 113.011254, "distance_from_trend": -0.017797, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.878977, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.407219, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.304508, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046412, "excess_performance": -0.006899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017797, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.407219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223014, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25453, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.31862, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1539, "relative_activity": 0.488571, "balance": 1.31862, "dry_up": 0.965794, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075274, "annualized_volatility": 0.330383, "from_high_reference": -0.195652, "from_low_reference": 0.226215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.011254, "fair_value_reference": 78.878977, "structural_low": 97.335999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.025658, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.003407, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.179487, "worst_return": -0.088705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058058, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.058161, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.232563, "worst_return": -0.049296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.203883, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.183458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.718118, "worst_return": -0.113067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 117.620003, "volume": 2252, "typical_volume": 3445.8, "trend": 111.080707, "fair_value": 77.537049, "relative_strength": 7.20473, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.050234, "energy": 26.395195, "activity_lines": [ 122.541335, 124.576745, 120.046495, 115.970965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 118.980003, "volume": 1861, "typical_volume": 3346.15, "trend": 111.679531, "fair_value": 77.898405, "relative_strength": 7.893609, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.945511, "energy": 27.374664, "activity_lines": [ 120.492002, 123.622094, 120.431857, 116.480597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 115.059998, "volume": 5137, "typical_volume": 3326.1, "trend": 112.20544, "fair_value": 78.232096, "relative_strength": 3.573366, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.26369, "energy": 23.455663, "activity_lines": [ 118.005334, 121.985927, 120.393566, 116.698691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 116.120003, "volume": 3632, "typical_volume": 3299.55, "trend": 112.75046, "fair_value": 78.575695, "relative_strength": 2.642838, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.866806, "energy": 20.813031, "activity_lines": [ 116.968001, 120.600728, 120.37739, 116.951244 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.0, "volume": 1539, "typical_volume": 3150.0, "trend": 113.011254, "fair_value": 78.878977, "relative_strength": -4.304508, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.05516, "energy": 19.314215, "activity_lines": [ 114.682668, 118.348365, 119.807322, 116.838311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }