{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b88275dd-eb2f-4d65-af33-66cce191d5fb", "symbol": "6016", "name": "Shatirah House Restaurant Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.871, "architecture_energy": 49.033, "architecture_maturity": 75.831, "architecture_confidence": 90.868, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.53, "rotation_up": 17.05, "upward_expansion": 8.17, "deceleration": 44.38, "rotation_down": 56.2, "downward_expansion": 79.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.341333, 7.396182, 7.519266, 7.638794 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.53, "trend_reference": 7.908678, "distance_from_trend": -0.047881, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.943424, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158041, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.896361, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.176149, "excess_performance": -0.144319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047881, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158041, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043576, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049562, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.93749, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3068450, "relative_activity": 1.361226, "balance": 0.93749, "dry_up": 0.659875, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042157, "annualized_volatility": 0.20985, "from_high_reference": -0.320857, "from_low_reference": 0.065064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.908678, "fair_value_reference": 8.943424, "structural_low": 7.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005519, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.002888, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.097204, "worst_return": -0.178609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031805, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.051675, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.342898, "worst_return": -0.10765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068208, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062773, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.463415, "worst_return": -0.13603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086885, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018831, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051136, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154545, 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"trend": 8.120012, "fair_value": 8.904216, "relative_strength": -13.803968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.653464, "energy": 44.251064, "activity_lines": [ 7.509182, 7.590337, 7.647511, 7.821276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.38, "volume": 996732, "typical_volume": 2138285.55, "trend": 8.056845, "fair_value": 8.9135, "relative_strength": -14.158114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.573874, "energy": 41.247545, "activity_lines": [ 7.46736, 7.540709, 7.617128, 7.773533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.16, "volume": 808445, "typical_volume": 2113251.95, "trend": 7.984262, "fair_value": 8.922166, "relative_strength": -16.876009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.657765, "energy": 47.996264, "activity_lines": [ 7.368, 7.457899, 7.568317, 7.715672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.18, "volume": 1076286, "typical_volume": 2117757.35, "trend": 7.917345, "fair_value": 8.931119, "relative_strength": -14.561962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.829394, "energy": 60.815102, "activity_lines": [ 7.288667, 7.388828, 7.525506, 7.663784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.53, "volume": 3068450, "typical_volume": 2254180.4, "trend": 7.908678, "fair_value": 8.943424, "relative_strength": -11.896361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.870544, "energy": 49.033159, "activity_lines": [ 7.341333, 7.396182, 7.519266, 7.638794 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }