{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b883687e-d7a0-44f8-a90b-b1e01585f903", "symbol": "XMK9", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan UCITS ETF 4C EUR Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.247, "architecture_energy": 32.284, "architecture_maturity": 59.578, "architecture_confidence": 79.425, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.36, "rotation_up": 39.89, "upward_expansion": 63.77, "deceleration": 82.62, "rotation_down": 27.11, "downward_expansion": 20.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.883334, 60.057273, 59.225667, 58.086989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 61.09, "trend_reference": 56.703667, "distance_from_trend": 0.077355, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.24072, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.446235, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.380229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105501, "excess_performance": -0.06539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077355, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064201, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.446235, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006611, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054421, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105501, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.02468, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25988, "relative_activity": 1.061582, "balance": 9.02468, "dry_up": 0.591268, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032386, "annualized_volatility": 0.209146, "from_high_reference": -0.014995, "from_low_reference": 0.40179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.703667, "fair_value_reference": 42.24072, "structural_low": 50.619999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030895, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00321, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.076647, "worst_return": -0.030565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082883, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.03754, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162747, "worst_return": -0.101177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.104778, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.016798, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.223177, "worst_return": -0.04276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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60.822667, 60.076727, 58.290333, 57.159935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.540001, "volume": 12718, "typical_volume": 27377.4, "trend": 55.824, "fair_value": 41.682579, "relative_strength": -0.670129, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.635853, "energy": 50.554317, "activity_lines": [ 60.126667, 59.926, 58.454, 57.353097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.110001, "volume": 9029, "typical_volume": 26920.3, "trend": 56.153333, "fair_value": 41.869631, "relative_strength": 1.942312, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.599459, "energy": 42.426614, "activity_lines": [ 59.992667, 60.037455, 58.761429, 57.629613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.580002, "volume": 10163, "typical_volume": 24724.75, "trend": 56.427333, "fair_value": 42.047131, "relative_strength": -1.500905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.471756, "energy": 29.543226, "activity_lines": [ 59.466668, 59.82491, 58.887667, 57.786172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.09, "volume": 25988, "typical_volume": 24480.45, "trend": 56.703667, "fair_value": 42.24072, "relative_strength": -0.380229, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.247344, "energy": 32.283984, "activity_lines": [ 59.883334, 60.057273, 59.225667, 58.086989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }