{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b8855a77-27ef-4da4-afb9-ece48809b6b5", "symbol": "GJS", "name": "G J Steel Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 75.934, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.907, "architecture_energy": 9.78, "architecture_maturity": 33.728, "architecture_confidence": 69.206, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.56, "rotation_up": 22.92, "upward_expansion": 39.74, "deceleration": 84.63, "rotation_down": 22.61, "downward_expansion": 26.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.131091, 0.132905, 0.129763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.123, "distance_from_trend": 0.056911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.166474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219099, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.388984, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.444444, "excess_performance": 0.252119, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039437, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219099, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045319, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10389, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018536, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.444444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.918396, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3297900, "relative_activity": 0.456609, "balance": 1.918396, "dry_up": 0.375613, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106509, "annualized_volatility": 0.375967, "from_high_reference": -0.1875, "from_low_reference": 0.444444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.123, "fair_value_reference": 0.166474, "structural_low": 0.09, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008328, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.096774, "worst_return": -0.211538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00624, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.647059, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.192308, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.187671, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.365385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.25, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.246276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": 0.25, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-06-17", "end": "2023-01-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.146341, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-01-13", "end": "2023-02-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.241379, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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0.121333, "fair_value": 0.168526, "relative_strength": -13.468147, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.209963, "energy": 19.094816, "activity_lines": [ 0.130667, 0.133818, 0.133333, 0.128194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 3905500, "typical_volume": 8166185.0, "trend": 0.122, "fair_value": 0.167821, "relative_strength": -13.058014, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.321492, "energy": 13.654516, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.132909, 0.133286, 0.128753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 2187200, "typical_volume": 7809775.0, "trend": 0.122333, "fair_value": 0.167115, "relative_strength": -11.422401, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.311168, "energy": 11.192824, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.132, 0.133143, 0.129269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 3297900, "typical_volume": 7222595.0, "trend": 0.123, "fair_value": 0.166474, "relative_strength": -10.388984, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.907025, "energy": 9.779529, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.131091, 0.132905, 0.129763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }